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Newsweek_article_2008-1 - WHAT’S.A NEW SUPERPOWER STEPS...

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Unformatted text preview: WHAT’S- .A NEW SUPERPOWER STEPS UP ‘NEXT BEIJENG’S 8101 YEAR 2mm .. NWMWWWWW. amass? éégs‘sés éfimgfiséggw 0’8 12 PEDPLE TO WATCH Under the this “2003: The year a new supergewer is item” (by Caha} Miimc), The [ndependem of England pubiished, on :he New Year’s Day, an amide on China, with the foiiowing first Paragraph : Hen: comes the werid’s newest superpewer. The rest cfthe wefld is gloomiiy comempfiafing economic Siowdevm arid even recession. Nos m Beijing, China is set to make 2093 the year it assms its grams a globai colossus by ’ flexing fr; ghtsnir‘ g econcmic mastic on internafioraak markets, ems): -.g :1an \. edenzed Easels of Earnest; cansnmpxics and shswcasing waif :0 a .u as watching wefld wi: . a glmering 2%}: pounds ESE? mph: Games MM“. <yunwwwwmnhmnwAmL‘wW‘HMQth-A’KLWMJ Max- mx«m»swwmgawwmm #fiMWMWWWm' WW _ rzk' f‘covrm STORY CHINA zoos China. surpassed the United States to ‘ '” become the world’s: leading: emitter of Mao on top;Nixon’s ' , C02 .Whetherit’strade, .glob31war1'n— . histofirvirit;Dmg ingf'Darfiinor No'rthKOrea, Chinahas. inAmm'm;Maai¢ - become the new x factor, without wifie, flung Qingon Which- no; durable solution 1sposs1ble . m'al m Beijing Andyet the Chinese: do not quite} see themselves -this.way Susan Shirk,. the author of a recentbook ahoutthe country, “The Fragile Super- 1 power}: tellsarevealinb D'tale. Whenever she mentions her title in America, people. say to her, “Fragile? Chinadoesn’ t seem fragile: Butin Chinapeoplesay, “Superpower? Chinaisn’ t a superpower.” In factifisboth, .andChinafsliagilityis directly relatedto' 1ts ex- traordinarjriiseiawrence Summers has recently pointed out that duringrthe Industrial Revolution the average European’s living standards rose about 50 percent over the course of his lifetime (then about 40 years). In Asia principally China, he calculates, , the average-.person’ s living standards are set to rise by 10, 000 per- cent in one lifetimel The scale and pace of growth in Chinahas been staggeringutterlynnprecedentedin history—and ithas pro- duced equallystaggerhrgchangeln two decades China has expo-t rienced the same degree of industrializatidn, urbanization and . social transformation as Europe did in two centuries. Recall what Chinalooked like only 30 years ago. It was a dev- astated country, one of the World’s poorest, with a totalitarian v w I'xl Us l"! l'rl‘.'l'l‘\L\.\.\-| (HUHSHU‘. .\|('|‘llLK (-K’At its-XX VIA, nr,l"|'.\l.\?\.\-|’X)ltlllS.h‘H’\. r 1.111 “2‘. 3:] \Vi \‘.l,‘, \H‘ {:I‘i'l'l'l |,\l.\‘y1‘.§. ll!‘|'l'h\.l|.'l'l ILU.\.\ ,‘ul P-I.l‘_1“|'\ I.‘~l “IRMA!" 'oprumerusnoon: V " ' been lifted out of poverty in China—about 75 percent of the ' ORAMERICANS 2008 IS ANIMPORTANT ELECTIONYEAR. BUT FOR MUCH OF THE W011.) ,IT IS LIKELY .V- . ' " ‘ to be seen as the year that China arrived to center stage with the Olympics serving as e country’s long— awaited coming— out party. The muCh— heralded advent of China as a global power is no lot; ' s . . V a reality 011' issue after issue, China has become the second most important country on the planet, Consid What’ s happened already this pastyear. In 2007 China contributed more to global growth than the United States, ' , first time another Country had done so since at least the 19305. It. also became the World-”s largest consumer, ecl ' mg the United States in four of the Sve basic food; energy and industrial commodities And a feW months or a forecast but state. It Was just emerging from. Mao Z'edcnifY tion, Which had destroyed universmes scho ls and fact . to revitalizeithe revolufion.-Si11Ce then 400 million people. have world’s totalpoverty reduction over the last century The country? ' has built new cities and. towns, roads and ports, and is planning" for the future inimpressive detail. So. farBeijingfhasmanagedto balance economic growthandzso— -. ' cial stabilityin ahighly fluidenvironment; Given their. challenges, . China’s politicalleaders stand out for their governingzskillsnThe .:' . regime remains a dictatorship, with a monop ly on power. But‘it - has expanded personal libertyin ways that .W uld be recognizabl’ez'.» x to John Locke or Thomasjefl'erson. People in Chinacannowwork; travel, own property and increasinglyworshipas they pleaseThiL is not enough, but itis not'insignifican’c either. But whether this. forward movement'— eeonomic and politiw cal—Will'continue has become the crucial question for ChinaJtis a question that is being asked not just in the West but in China; and for practical reasons. The regime’ s main. problem' IS. not that _. it’s incurably evil but thati't' is losing control over its own country.” Growth has empowered localities and regions to the pointthatde— centralization is now the defining reality of hinese life. Central: tax collection is lewer than in most countrieE, a key indicator of Beijing’s weakness. On almost every'issue— lowing down lend— ing, curbing greenhouse-gas en1issions~the central government H’ r-i h‘rr’ 'm an 1-.1'1-1‘ ASHES-Tmnmmen " the ha'mloverin W11 wealnieSS . HongKong, fining. 7 casts a shadoW ovenits: foreign po1icy.’ ZeminnndBill . It IS uniqueas aworhlpOWer, the first:- Clinton;Beiy'ingj’0'8v. . in modemhistory to be at once rich » (in aggregatmtermszk andeoor (in pen capitaterm-s); It sfillSeesitselfas a developing country mtb.hun—. ; dreds: of mdhonsof peasants to worryabout. It views manyof the ; issues on Whichit ispressed'— global warming human tights—as nan-country prohiemmflflhen it comes to pushing regimes to open up, Beijingmlso womeseabout the imphcan'ons for its own undemocraticsn'ucture )But'this' 1s changing. FrontNorth Korea to Darfur to hamChinahaabeen slowlyshowing thantwantsto be a responsibla‘fstakeholder” 111 the international system. Somescholars'anclpolicyintellechmls (anda few generalsin the Pentagonflook anthe‘risenf Chinaand. see the seeds of inevitable... greanpowerconflictandzperhaps; even- War: Look athistoty, they say. Whema ’ ' ' eait. inevitably disturbs the balance of power, unsetfles: the: international order and seeks a placein the . sun. This makesit bump up againstthe established great power of the day (matwouldh‘e us)-So, Sine—U. S. .conflictis inevitable. But some great powers have been like Nazi Germany and oth- ers like modern-day Gennany and Japan. The United States moved up the ‘globaltotem pole and replae : .' country Without a'War between the two nations- Co ‘ 1' E, depends largely on policy choices that ' , hams the crucially important point that thel -Washington, meanwhile—siding atop a unipolar order—is unused: , , competition—particularly 111 the economic realm'—be 11a and the United States' is inevitable. Bvatflyv - be 111a ton and Beijing over. the next decade. , _ p In' another Foreign Afaiirs essay, Princeton extIemely conducive to China’s peacefid 11s is integrated, rule-based, with wide and deep founda : there. are massive economic benefits for China to. work ' ' great- powerwar “’I‘oday’sWesternorde .. ., ' " " turn and easyto 10m. ”WfitesIke‘nberry . ' The Chinese show many sigas: of understandmgthese c011 , tions- Their chief strategist. Zheng Bijiamz co' . '“ “peaceful rise” to describejust such anefi'ort ing a 12-part documenintylastyear, “The Rise of G whose central lesson' 1s that markets: aninot empnadet the long— run success of a great global poWer. , But While the conditions existfor peace anicooperahnn,:there ' are also many: factors pending in the other directioniAs ". grows in strength; it grows in pride and natioualistfeelmg:— -Wh1ch::.} . will be on 11111 display at the Summer Olympic GamesEBefihigh: mandarin class is convinced that the UnitedStatessiwishesr-itill. to the idea of sharing power or accommodating anothergreatpom ' er’s interests. Flashpoints like human rights, Taiwanzor someuna. foreseen incident could. spiral badly in an atmosphere ofiinistrust: and with domestic constituencies—en- both sideseeagetto sound: tough. Two thousand; eight' 15 the year of Chinazlt should. also be . the year we crafts serious long- -tenn Chinapolicy: @ Watch Famed Zakaria’ s video on the reinvention of Beiiingandseea gallery showing the changing face of China at xtrwNewsweek-scom otc.31,2oo7/JAN. 7, 2008 l NEWSWEEK 39. ...
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Newsweek_article_2008-1 - WHAT’S.A NEW SUPERPOWER STEPS...

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