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Exam_3_Forecasting_Assignment

Exam_3_Forecasting_Assignment - 1.046 1.145 192.1 25 2007 1...

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Centered Moving Average and Deseasonalization Centered Moving Ratio to Seasonal Guests t Year Quarter Guests Average CMA Indexes Deseasonalized 1 2001 1 86 1.205 71.4 2 2001 2 62 1.021 60.7 3 2001 3 28 70.000 0.400 0.630 44.5 4 2001 4 94 75.000 1.253 1.145 82.1 5 2002 1 106 80.000 1.325 1.205 88.0 6 2002 2 82 85.000 0.965 1.021 80.3 7 2002 3 48 91.750 0.523 0.630 76.2 8 2002 4 114 100.750 1.132 1.145 99.6 9 2003 1 140 109.750 1.276 1.205 116.2 10 2003 2 120 119.000 1.008 1.021 117.6 11 2003 3 82 126.750 0.647 0.630 130.2 12 2003 4 154 132.000 1.167 1.145 134.5 13 2004 1 162 136.750 1.185 1.205 134.5 14 2004 2 140 141.500 0.989 1.021 137.2 15 2004 3 100 147.250 0.679 0.630 158.8 16 2004 4 174 154.500 1.126 1.145 152.0 17 2005 1 188 162.000 1.160 1.205 156.1 18 2005 2 172 168.500 1.021 1.021 168.5 19 2005 3 128 174.000 0.736 0.630 203.3 20 2005 4 198 180.250 1.098 1.145 172.9 21 2006 1 208 187.250 1.111 1.205 172.7 22 2006 2 202 193.250 1.045 1.021 197.9 23 2006 3 154 200.750 0.767 0.630 244.6 24 2006 4 220 210.250
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Unformatted text preview: 1.046 1.145 192.1 25 2007 1 246 219.500 1.121 1.205 204.2 26 2007 2 240 228.000 1.053 1.021 235.1 27 2007 3 190 0.630 301.7 28 2007 4 252 1.145 220.1 Calculation of Seasonal Indexes 1 2 3 4 2001 0.400 1.253 2002 1.325 0.965 0.523 1.132 2003 1.276 1.008 0.647 1.167 2004 1.185 0.989 0.679 1.126 2005 1.160 1.021 0.736 1.098 2006 1.111 1.045 0.767 1.046 2007 1.121 1.053 mean: 1.196 1.014 0.625 1.137 3.972 adjusted: 1.205 1.021 0.630 1.145 4.000 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 f(x) = 7.22x + 43.64 R² = 0.91 Deseasonalization Column D Column H Linear Regression for Column HQuarter Guests Guests 86 62 28 94 106 82 48 114 140 120 82 154 162 140 100 174 188 172 128 198 208 202 154 220 246 240 190 252...
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