041609 - Lecture Did the Surge Work? 4/16 Political opening...

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Lecture 4/16 Did the Surge Work? Political opening to Sunni insurgents did have a big impact in Anbar province. - Western insurgents, mainly Sunnis, in Iraq were aligning with Al-Qaeda - Some who were following Iraqi politics closely found a way to drive a wedge between Sunnis and Al-Qaeda opposition in Mesopotamia - Nov. 2006: Before the surge decision, tribal leaders in Western Iraq were approached and offered a deal – turn against Al-Qaeda in your midst, and we will put you/your soldiers on the payroll and seek to bring you back into the political system with respect Worked relatively well; there was a rapid turn around… - Many Iraqis switched sides, Americans trained them - Anbar went to one of the most dangerous places to operate to one of the more peaceful for American troops Added troops probably helped stabilize Baghdad. - Large amount of fighting between Shia militia groups, government, and Americans - Not many additional troops could be spared, but 30,000 were sent Growth of US-trained Iraqi military and police has had an impact. - Get Iraqi troops to lead most military operations - There would still be American troops, but Iraqis would make key decisions and lead most operations/logistics/communications - Iraqis would take the day-to-day responsibility of providing security - Worked relatively well – new Iraqi Army began to behave more professionally - Revision of “counterinsurgency doctrine” by General Patraeus – came to conclusion that many others have fought this type of war, not Americans… - Insurgents are not trying to defeat you, but rather discourage you… - Patraeus said we must be careful to not hurt any civilian b/c that will drive more power into the insurgents. The real goal is not body counts but rather concentration of security for Iraqi people b/c then they will begin to cooperate. - Must be very careful when using force. Recent provincial elections suggest some turn from sectarianism. Iraq remains a very dangerous lace with lots of questions about future.
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Bush, Sharon, and Arafat - At the end of the Clinton Administration, negotiations collapsed completely. Clinton was convinced Arafat was to blame; he was just too much to work with anymore. - Within a few weeks of Bush coming into office, Israelis had elections where Barak lost
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041609 - Lecture Did the Surge Work? 4/16 Political opening...

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