021709 - PLIR 365 I Current Happenings A Egypt i...

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02/17/09 PLIR 365 I. Current Happenings A. Egypt i. Authoritarian state that allows a fair amount of impressions ii. Deeply involved in trying to stabilize the Israelis and Palestinians over Gaza iii. President is 81 and people wonder what will happen when he dies B. Israeli Elections i. No party even got a fourth, so it will be hard for them to form a coalition of 61 ii. Kadima- 28, Likud- 27 (might have an easier time forming a coalition), Israel is our Home- 15, Labor- 13 (shock) iii. Liebermann doesn’t like the religious party which makes the religious parties uncomfortable (head of Israel is our Home) iv. Coalition may be the top three parties and maybe even Labor C. Working on peace i. Hamas has 1 Israeli prisoner, Israel has about 12,000 Palestinian prisoners ii. Working on a prisoner exchange- one of the Palestinians may be some guy that is very popular with the youth 1. Could emerge as a leader of Palestinian authority D. Sen. Kerry is about to arrive in Damascus, saying that we want to improve relations E. Saudi Arabia i. Some hard line religious figures were demoted ii. First woman ever was made a deputy minister!!!! II. October 1973 War A. Changed power relationships i. When power relationships alter, there is a spill over effect throughout the regions ii. New equilibrium emerges and the game is played a little differently B. Kissinger saw the Middle East as a small part of the US-Soviet relations i. Wouldn’t deal with any country too close to the Soviet Union, like Egypt ii. Also felt that deterrence would work- Israel had won so well in the pervious war, so why would the Arabs go to war again? C. Why did deterrence fail?
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This note was uploaded on 04/29/2009 for the course PLIR 365 taught by Professor Quandt during the Spring '09 term at UVA.

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021709 - PLIR 365 I Current Happenings A Egypt i...

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