Dec. 3-5 copy

Dec. 3-5 copy - IR 100 Contemporary Challenges and...

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Unformatted text preview: IR 100 Contemporary Challenges and Conclusions Dec. 3­5, 2007 Prof. Mary Elise Sarotte Last week of class Final sections this week Final Final Exam: Final Fri., Dec. 14, Fri., here, here, 2pm Outline Main question: Main What are the biggest challenges to What contemporary US foreign policy? How does our understanding of the past How help us to face those challenges? help Readings Finish Overy atlas: Final chapter on Finish population explosion, refugees, disease, the environment and other transnational topics environment Cirincione and Garwin on proliferation and Cirincione holes in the missile shield holes Friedman on international trade Zakaria on illiberal democracy Problems with Neocon Approach 1, negative impact on rest of world 2, reliant upon questionable intelligence 3, over-reliant upon one tool 4, executed poorly 5, denied complexity of democratization 5, processes processes 6, could not maintain public support Questionable Sources: See federal documents on NSA website Rafid Ahmed Alwan's (Curveball’s) charges that Rafid Iraq possessed stockpiles of biological weapons and the mobile plants to produce them formed a critical part of the U.S. justification for the invasion in Spring 2003. Secretary of State Colin L. Powell's globally Secretary televised briefing to the United Nations Security Council on February 5, 2003, relied on Curveball as the main source of intelligence on the biological issue. issue. Larry Diamond, “What Went Wrong” A democratization plan needs 4 components: 1, political reconstruction of a legitimate and 1, capable state capable 2, economic reconstruction 3, social reconstruction 4, provision of general security US did not have a successful plan in these key US areas. areas. Abu Ghraib abuses At left, one of the most famous images to emerge from the At Abu Ghraib prison while under US Army control and operation (previously a torture center for Saddam Hussein) operation At right, US Army reservists Lynndie England and Charles At Graner pose with prisoners ordered to form a human pyramid pyramid Constitutional Issues Does the US Constitution apply to non-citizens? Does US citizens are only ones who can vote or run for US office office Only citizens born on US territory can serve as Only president (eliminates the current governor of California) California) However: Constitutional protections are described as Constitutional universally applicable, not just to citizens universally In particular: 5th and 14th Amts.: due process and equal 5th protection guarantees extend to all “persons” protection Constitution con’d Rights attached to criminal trials apply to “the Rights accused.” accused.” 1st Amt. protections of political and religious 1st freedom, and 4th Amt. protections of privacy, extend to “the people.” extend The Sup. Ct. has held that neither the 1st Amt. nor The the 5th Amt. acknowledge any distinction between citizens and resident aliens, in Kwong Hai Chew v. Colding, 1953. Colding, Constitution con’d The Court has repeatedly stated that the The Due Process Clause applies to all “persons” within the United States, including aliens, whether their presence here is lawful, unlawful, temporary, or permanent. Zadvydas v. Davis, (2001); see also Zadvydas Mathews v. Diaz, (1976). Mathews Conclusion In short, contrary to widely held In assumptions, the Constitution extends fundamental protections of due process, political freedoms, and equal protection to all persons without regard to citizenship. all Source: David Cole, Enemy Aliens, 2003 Source: Enemy Current Challenges: Transnational Issues Environmental issues Democracy promotion, costs and benefits Human trafficking and slavery Environmental Issues: IPCC Report Most recent report argued that climate change Most could bring “abrupt and irreversible” effects. In particular: Dramatic effects of the rapid melting In of the Greenland ice sheet, likely extinction of up to a third of plant and animal species if the average global temperature is increased by 2 degrees celsius above pre-industrial levels. (Summary of report from Financial Times) Financial Human Trafficking: 21st Century Slavery As of June 2006: Estimated number of people As living in servitude globally = 12 million living Approximately 80% are female, up to 50% Approximately under the age of 18 under 43% used for sex About 17,500 trafficked into the US annually Source: Ethan Kapstein, Foreign Affairs Source: Foreign Definition of Trafficking: Trafficking: "The recruitment, transportation, Trafficking: transfer, harboring or receipt of persons, by means of the threat or use of force … for the purpose of exploitation.” exploitation.” —The Palermo Protocol to the UN Convention The Against Transnational Crime, 2000 Against Current Challenges: Bilateral Relations Relations with China Relations with Pakistan Relations with Iraqis US Relations with Pakistan Since 9/11, Pakistan has received $10b from the Since US excluding covert funding (source: CSIS) US 60% directly to the Pakistani military 15% to the purchase of weapons systems 15% to the general Pakistani government budget 10% for humanitarian assistance Current Challenges: Proliferation Nuclear Proliferation North Korea Iran…and a Pakistani enemy state? Current Challenges: Trade The dollar’s extraordinary depreciation Free trade vs. fair trade? Depreciation of the Dollar The vast majority of the US current account The deficit is funded in a specific way: By central banks, accumulating dollars as a way of avoiding appreciation of their own currencies (in particular China). currencies Depreciation of the Dollar: Larry Summers So, while we think of the dollar as a floating So, currency, it does not actually float against such currencies. In other words, the dollar (or to be more In precise, the trade-weighted exchange rate of the dollar) is to an important extent being managed by other countries, not by the US. managed Current Challenges: Terrorism and Relations with the Islamic World Homeland security Future relations with the Muslim world: Future Turkey Turkey Conclusions Week 2: Theoretical vs. historical Week methods methods Week 3: Does the US have an inherent Week imperialism? Week 4: Wilsonianism: failure or Week success? success? Conclusions Week 5: How does a leader decide to Week use a WMD? What are the most important factors in the decision? Week 6: How does a great power Week successfully establish a new international order? international Conclusions Week 7: Week How can US leaders deal with proliferation? Week 8: At the brink: The Cuban Week Missile Crisis and the challenge of leadership under threat leadership Conclusions Week 9: Does Vietnam hold relevant Week lessons for the Iraq War today? lessons Week 10: How did the US extract Week itself from Vietnam and are the lessons relevant for today? lessons Conclusions Week 11: Week The end of the Cold War: What The went right? went Week 12: Should the US intervene? Conclusions Week 14: Facing the reordering Week moment moment IR 100 Contemporary Challenges and Conclusions Dec. 3­5, 2007 Prof. Mary Elise Sarotte ...
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