Nov. 26-28 copy

Nov. 26-28 copy - IR 100 Facing the Reordering Moment The...

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Unformatted text preview: IR 100 Facing the Reordering Moment: The Bush Administration and the Challenge of 9/11 Neo­conservatism and the Invasion of Iraq Nov. 26­28, 2007 Prof. Mary Elise Sarotte Outline Main question: How should the US try to change Main (or maintain) international order during the reordering moment? Differing answers… reordering 1 Recap: Bush 41 and Clinton 2 Bush 43: Election-Season Ideas and the Bush “Vulcans” “Vulcans” 3 Bush 43: Post 9/11 ideas and the “neocons” Assessment forms at end of lecture Event today: The Unruh Institute If you are interested in political internships, If attending talks with local & national politicians, or just a politics junkie, then the Unruh Institute has lots of programs that could serve your interests. This informational meeting will talk about all those programs. those Date: Wednesday, November 28 Time: 4:00 Place: VKC 300 Food: FREE PIZZA!!! Readings Blackboard (nuclear proliferation) plus Levine, Blackboard Merrill (both Presidents Bush, Lewis) Merrill The US National Security Strategy, 2002; read The “Introduction” and “Overview of America’s International Strategy” International The 9/11 Commission Report, read Executive The Summary and Preface; skim Chp. I, “We Have Some Planes” Some Bush (41st Pres.) Strategy (See Merrill reading) 1, in “new world order,” assume role as the 1, world’s pre-eminent leader world’s 2, interventionism (including military) 3, work in concert with old allies and new 3, USSR USSR 4, preserve existing balance of power Clinton Administration strategy 1, Wilsonian liberalism: strengthen and expand 1, international institutions (especially NATO) international 2, emphasis on trade relations and diplomacy of 2, economics; National Economic Council was for a time more powerful than the National Security Council, and Treasury and IMF were prime instruments of American foreign policy instruments 3, emphasis on collective security 4, interventionism NATO Expansion Clinton Administration decided to open Clinton NATO to former Warsaw Pact members NATO List of current members available on List Blackboard under external links, with links to those countries to Bush strategy as stated in campaign 2000 1, realism – emphasis on strength rather than on 1, cooperation or treaties cooperation 2, hands-off with regard to economic issues 3, against interventionism and nation-building George W. Bush, 43rd President born 1946 attended Yale, BA 1968, member of Skull and attended Bones Bones Harvard Business School, MBA 1975, first MBA Harvard president president followed in father’s footsteps in Texas oil business Became governor of Texas, 1994-2000, key aide Became Karl Rove, ran campaign for presidency 2000 Karl “Vulcans” Eight-person team tutored candidate George Eight-person W. Bush on foreign policy: Rice, Wolfowitz, Armitage, Richard Perle, Dov Zakheim, Stephen Hadley, Robert Blackwill, and Robert Zoellick Called self Vulcans after statue in Called Birmingham, hometown of Rice Birmingham, Early “Vulcan” thinking (1991-2) In future: world order guarded by US collective security no longer at the heart of collective American thinking American UN is unimportant; US is international UN force for good force NATO and other alliances less important Bush (43rd Pres.) strategy after 9/11 How Iraq crystallized key elements of How “neoconservative” or “neocon” views: “neoconservative” Centrality and efficacy of military power US as force for good Optimistic assessment of what US could achieve Reluctance to deal with allies 9/11 Commission 9/11 Commission Report: Final Report of the 9/11 National Commission on Terrorist Attacks Upon the United States. Available online and in book the format (New York: Norton, 2004.) Commission created by Congress and the Commission President, Public Law 107-306, 27 November 2002. Commission reviewed more than 2.5m pages of Commission documents and interviewed more than 1,200 individuals in ten countries. individuals 9/11 Commission con’d Thomas H. Kean, the commission chairman, is a Republican former governor of New Jersey. Lee H. Hamilton, the commission vice chair, is Lee president and director of the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars in Washington, D.C. A Democrat, he served 17 terms as a U.S. representative from Indiana. representative 9/11 Commission Conclusions Four kinds of failures • of imagination, of • of policy, of • of capabilities, • and of management Iraqi Weapons of Mass Destruction 1991-8: UN Special Commission (UNSCOM) 1991-8: identified and dismantled almost all of Iraq’s prohibited weapons. prohibited Together with IAEA, conducted hundreds of Together inspections at weapons sites, uncovering and eliminating Iraq’s nuclear weapons program and most of its chemical, biological, and ballistic missile systems. missile Iraqi WMD, con’d Nov. 2002-March 2003: In four months of further inspections, the UN In Monitoring, Verification, and Inspection Commission (UNMOVIC) confirmed the depleted state of Iraq’s capabilities state Source: George A. Lopez and David Cortright, Source: “Containing Iraq: Sanctions Worked.” Foreign Affairs, July-August 2004, pp. 90-103; see also Affairs, Cobra II by Michael Gordon and General Trainor Cobra Advantages to Neocon Approach 1, provided quick response to pressing national 1, crisis crisis 2, provided plan of action 3, won top-level political support quickly Problems with Neocon Approach 1, negative impact on rest of world 2, reliant upon questionable sources 3, over-reliant upon one tool, and not the right one 4, executed poorly 5, denied complexity of democratization processes 6, could not maintain public support IR 100 Facing the Reordering Moment: The Bush Administration and the Challenge of 9/11 Neo­conservatism and the Invasion of Iraq Nov. 26­28, 2007 Prof. Mary Elise Sarotte ...
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