Forecasting Exercise 2_Solution - Simple Exponential Smoothing 1 alpha = Average Forecast Week 1 Rooms Sold 483 2 493 484 483 3 475 483.1 484 4 509

# Forecasting Exercise 2_Solution - Simple Exponential...

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Simple Exponential Smoothing 1 alpha = Week Rooms Sold Average Forecast 1 483 483 2 493 484 483 3 475 483.1 484 4 509 485.69 483 5 514 488.521 486 6 524 492.0689 489 7 497 492.56201 492 8 533 496.605809 493 9 509 497.8452281 497 10 595 507.56070529 498 11 573 514.104634761 508 12 595 522.1941712849 514 13 598 529.7747541564 522 14 613 538.0972787408 530 15 609 545.1875508667 538 16 614 552.06879578 545 17 620 558.861916202 552 18 600 562.9757245818 559 19 609 567.5781521236 563 20 633 574.1203369113 568 574 1. Forecst demand (from Period 2 to Period 21) by using Simple exponential 2. Track of forecasting error. Find error, Absolute value of error, and Squared 3. Repeat above process by using simple exponential smoothing with alpha 4. Compare Combined error value (in the last period) of SES with alpha 0.1 a
0.1ErrorABS (error)Squared (error)MADBIAS-101010010-1099819.5-0.5-262667615-9-282878418.25-13.75-3535122521.6-18-5525 18.833333 -15.83333-40401600 21.857143 -19.28571-121214420.625-18.375-97979409 29.111111 -27.11111-6565422532.7-30.9-81816561 37.090909 -35.45455-76765776 40.333333 -38.83333-83836889 43.615385 -42.23077-71715041 45.571429 -44.28571-69694761 47.133333 -45.93333-6868462448.4375-47.3125-4141168148 -46.94118-46462116 47.888889 -46.88889-65654225 48.789474 -47.84211l smoothing with alpha value = 0.1d value of error. Find simple average value of MAD, BIAS, MSE of each period . Find combined error for evalue = 0.9.and the value of SES with alpha 0.9. Which one is the better alpha value, and why?
Simple Exponential Smoothing 2 alpha = MSE Combined Average Forecast 483 100 120 492 483 90.5 100.5 476.7 492 285.66667 309.6666666667 505.77 477 410.25 442.25 513.177 506 573.2 612.8 522.9177 513 481.83333