Forecasting Exercise 3_Solution.xlsx - alpha Month Demand Average January 55 February 52 March 57 April 64 May alpha 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9

# Forecasting Exercise 3_Solution.xlsx - alpha Month Demand...

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alpha 0.6 phi 0.3 Month Demand Average Forecast Error Mad BIAS January 55 55 February 52 53.2 55 3 3 3 March 57 55.48 53 -4 3.3 0.9 April 64 60.592 55 -9 5.01 -2.07 May 61 alpha Combined error on April 0.1 35.79 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 39.15 0.7 0.8 0.9 30.66 1. Forecast demand in Ma (alpha=0.6) When you use alpha in you hardcoding (i.e., use D2, ra 2. Calculate forecast error 3. Use Exponential smoot MSE, and Combined for ea 4. Go back to Q1. Repeat d alpha.. 0.1, 0.2, 0.3,... 0.9. error on April for each alph 5. Which alpha value work *Do not change phi value
MSE Combined 9 15 11.1 15.3 32.07 39.15 ay using Simple Exponential Smoothing ur formula, use cell reference rather than ather than typing 0.6 and (1-0.6) or 0.4 r thed average (phi = 0.3) to measure MAD, BIAS, ach month (Feb, March, April). demand forecasting . At this time, use different And fill up the table in the left. Find, combined