Forecasting exercise 4_Solution copy - Alpha = Month Demand Average Trend Forecast January 55 50.22222 4.444444 February 52 52.8 3.511111 55 March

Forecasting exercise 4_Solution copy - Alpha = Month...

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Alpha = 0.7 Month Demand Average Trend Forecast January 55 50.22222 4.444444 February 52 52.8 3.511111 55 March 57 56.79333 3.752222 56 April 64 62.96367 4.961278 61 May 68 67.97748 4.987547 68 June 72 72.28951 4.649787 73 July 81 79.78179 6.071033 77 August 83 83.85585 5.072545 86 September 89 November 99
Beta = 0.5 1. Find Average 1 (January) and Trend 1 * Average 1 formula: Average(D1 ~ D3) - T1 * Trend 1 formula: (Average(D4~D6) - Average (D1~D3))/3 2. Find Average 2 ~ Average 8 (January ~ August) * Formula: At = alpha*Dt + (1-alpha)*(At-1+Tt-1) 3. Find Trend 2 ~ Trend 8 (January ~ August) * Formula: Tt = beta*(At - At-1) + (1-beta)*Tt-1 4. Find Forecast *Fomula : Ft= Round(At-1 + Tt-1,0) 5. Find Forecast in November (period 11) * Formula: Forecast for p periods ahead: At + pTt (e.g., F36 = A30 + 6*T30)
Alpha = 0.7 Beta = Week Demand Average Trend Forecast Error MAD BIAS 1 483 473 10.66667 2 493 490.2 16.54667 484 -9 9 -9 3 475 484.524 -3.453733 507 32 17.05 5.35 4 509 500.6211 14.142 481 -28 20.8825 -6.3225 5 514 514.2289 13.66126 515 1 13.92363 -3.759625 6 524 525.1671 11.21044 528 4 10.45036 -1.043756 7 497 508.8132 -13.59738 536 39 20.44273 12.97156 8 533 521.6648 10.20662 495 -38 26.58778 -4.868487 9 509 515.8614 -4.202349 532 23 25.33205 4.885483 10 595 569.9977 48.30244 512 -83 45.51584 -25.87444 11 573 586.59 19.76334 618 45 45.33529 -1.068383 12 595 598.406 12.61071 606 11 33.31794 3.155551 13 598 601.905 4.410171 611 13 26.20666 6.601108 14 613 610.9946 8.621603 606 -7 19.48433 1.84072 15 609 612.1848 1.933423 620 11 16.51481 5.046468 16 614 614.0355 1.858912 614 0 10.73463 3.280204 17 620 618.7683 4.445444 616 -4 8.377509 0.732133 18 600 606.9641 -10.17923 623 23 13.49538 8.525886 19 609 605.3355 -2.483715 597 -12 12.972 1.341826 20 633 623.9555 16.50968 603 -30 18.9318 -9.627813 21 648 645.7396 21.2566 640 -8 15.10567 -9.058078 22 659 661.3988 16.21902 667 8 12.61868 -3.087751

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