Q4Sum2015answers(1).pdf - Bus 252 Quiz 4 summer 2015 For...

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Bus 252 Quiz 4 summer 2015 For answers to questions 1 4, see the Excel file titled, Reg Data for HW4 Answer. 1. Given the excel sheet for HW4, create a scatter plot (chart) of the data and discuss what you see, include a linear trend line. 2. Given the excel sheet for HW4, execute a regression. 3. Given the excel sheet for HW4, discuss the relevance (how good is the model) of the regression model overall and for the intercept and the coefficient of the independent variable. R, R^2, adjusted R^2, standard error, F test, significance of F, t Stat, P-value, and confidence interval. 4. Given the excel sheet for HW4, calculate the point estimate and confidence interval prediction for each measure and the associated residual/error. 5. What is MAD (mean absolute deviation) or MAE (mean absolute error)? The average of the absolute value of the errors achieved when subtracting the forecast/prediction of each period from the demand of each period. If the MAD value is multiplied by 1.25, the resulting answer will approximate the SD of the error. Once you have the SD you can find the bounds of a confidence interval. 6. What is MSE and RMSE (mean squared error or root mean squared error)? MSE is the average of the squared errors which is the variance of the errors and RMSE is just the square root of MSE or the SD of the errors. Once you have the SD you can find the bounds of a confidence interval. 7. What is CFE (cumulative sum of forecast errors)? Sum of the errors, will tell you if your model is biased. If the errors were normally distributed, CFE would be Zero, it never is zero. If the error = Demand Forecast, than a negative CFE would mean that the forecast was biased in that the model is over forecasting. If the CFE is positive, than the model under forecasts more often.
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