Big think perspectives on a complex world

Big think perspectives on a complex world - Big think...

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Unformatted text preview: Big think perspectives on A complex world IR 101 February 12 & 14, 2008 "The twentieth century saw the developed world descend into a paroxysm of ideological violence. But at its close, (the world is) returning to where it started ... an unabashed victory of economic and political liberalism." (Frank Fukuyama summer 1989) The end of history Democracy and Trade 200 180 160 140 120 100 19 90 19 91 19 92 19 93 19 94 19 95 19 96 19 97 19 98 19 99 20 00 20 01 20 02 24% GDP 113 countries Exports Democracies The world is flat "it all happened while we were sleeping, or rather while we (the US) were focused on 9/11 ... in 30 years we will have gone from `sold in China' to `made in China' to `designed in China' to `dreamed up in China' ... Ditto India." (Tom Friedman 2005) Goldman Sachs 1999 "Dreaming with BRICS" GDP in trillions $ 50 40 30 20 10 0 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 0 0 1 1 2 2 3 4 4 0 2 5 2 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 2 2 0 5 0 US EU Big 4 China I ndia The global economy: a brief history (Angus Maddison) 100 80 60 40 20 0 1000 Asia 1500 Europe 1820 Africa 1870 1913 1950 1973 2000 Latin America Anglo new world Arrogance and ignorance of empire "Led by the US, the world's richest states have acted on the assumption that people everywhere want to live as they do ... The ideal of a universal civilisation is a recipe for unending conflict, and it is time it was given up." (Gray 2001) Globalization as Americanization (Pew Global Survey 2002) 4.5 3.5 3 2.5 2 1.5 2 Jordan Ghana Ivory Coast Russia France Bolivia Argentina Lebano n Egypt Turkey Pakistan opinion of US ( higher= better) 4 Kenya Nigeria India 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5 globalization is good ( higher= better) The clash of civilizations "The great divisions among humankind and the dominating sources of conflict will be cultural." (Sam Huntington 1993) Global Terrorism, 19962003, stable industrial democracies United States Israel Italy France Netherlands United Kingdom Germany Austria Belgium Spain total less 911 US roads 2003 Deaths 3189 414 26 8 6 2 1 0 0 0 3646 457 42643 Injuries 80 1919 80 86 0 307 4 0 10 54 2540 2460 Kidnaps 0 0 6 7 3 1 18 9 0 0 44 44 Global Terrorism, 19962003, other countries Deaths 995 307 205 180 174 132 119 96 90 87 83 72 59 59 58 53 2769 Injuries 2677 5063 475 159 57 407 1562 183 48 193 904 210 86 669 87 223 13003 Kidnaps 9 0 67 818 189 1513 67 0 0 592 282 5 37 0 2 251 3832 India Kenya Indonesia Russia Angola Iraq Sri Lanka Pakistan Egypt Colombia Turkey Chechnya Algeria Saudi Arabia Uganda Philippines total Islamic extremism '05 survey (Pew) % favorable unfavorable Muslims Christians Jews China Germany Netherlands Japan Spain Poland Russia France Canada US UK Turkey Lebanon Pakistan Morocco Jordan Indonesia 21 70 68 42 70 81 82 68 72 81 79 42 84 36 28 17 20 21 46 74 11 38 27 37 66 67 70 72 42 99 69 80 100 63 30 7 6 3 9 16 19 30 32 35 58 72 85 92 94 98 98 Who has "soft power"? (Globescan 2004, Univ. Maryland) viewed as "mainly positive" influence in world ( total 23 countries) Russia US China Britain France Europe 0 5 10 15 20 25 ...
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