Dr. Batta Week 3 Discussion 2.docx

Dr. Batta Week 3 Discussion 2.docx - The figures below...

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The figures below indicate the number of mergers that took place in the savings and loan industry over a 12-year period. Year Mergers Year Mergers 2000 46 2006 83 2001 46 2007 123 2002 62 2008 97 2003 45 2009 186 2004 64 2010 225 2005 61 2011 240 a. Calculate a 5-year moving average to forecast the number of mergers for 2012. The moving average for 5 years in 2012, would equal to: (240+225+186+97+123)/5= 174.2 b. Use the moving average technique to determine the forecast for 2005 to 2011. Calculate measurement error using MSE and MAD.

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The MSE value is equal to the sum of the squared error divided by 7. And the MAD value is equal to the sum of the absolute deviation divided by 7. c. Calculate a 5-year weighted moving average to forecast to the number of mergers for 2012. Use weights of 0.10, 0.15, 0.20, 0.25, and 0.30, with the most recent year weighted
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