THE ANALYTIC HIERARCHY PROCESS: APPLICATION TO THE ELECTION OF THE CHIEF MINISTER OF PERAK, MALAYSIA 2013 Datin Margarita Sergeevna Peredaryenko Graduate School of Management International Islamic University Malaysia Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia E-mail: [email protected] Dato’ Hj Rais Hussin Hj Mohamed Ariff Graduate School of Management International Islamic University Malaysia Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia E-mail: [email protected] ABSTRACT For the last two-three decades in an attempt to predict most likely outcomes of public elections different methods and techniques have been developed and employed by social scientists to produce empirical evidence of a predictive power. This study is focusing on application of analytic hierarchy process (AHP) as a tool to forecast most likely winning candidate in the forthcoming election of the Chief Minister of Perak, Malaysia, in the year 2012. Two candidates, Dato Seri Diraja Dr. Zambry Abd Kadir Zambry and Dato Seri Ir’ Mohammad Nizar Jamaluddin, were compared vis-à-vis using AHP technique against seven sub criteria, such as charisma, humility, integrity, party, nation-building, people engagement, leadership and experience. AHP questionnaires were distributed in Ipon, state of Perak, Malaysia. There were 30 respondents selected randomly. According to the overall results, Dr. Zambry is projected to be the favored candidate for the post of Chief Minister of Perak in the forthcoming election with 59.57 per cent of winning votes over his counterparty Nizar. However, differences existed in voting between the three races representing population of Malaysians. Although Malays and Indians have shown the unanimous support to Dr. Zambry with the voting scores of 66.98 per cent and 69.55 per cent respectively, Chinese have given their preference to Nizar (60.12 per cent over Zambry). Keywords: Analytic Hierarchy Process, predicting elections outcomes, Malaysia. 1. Introduction Last two decades witnessed increased interest in predicting the outcomes of public elections not only by politicians but also social scientists. The latter group have developed numerous methods of predicting election outcomes and produced empirical evidence for their validity. These methods vary from the utilization of ordinary public opinion polls (Sigelman, 1979; Cohen, 1998; Wolfers & Leigh, 2002), prediction markets (Forsythe, Murray, Krishnamurthy, & Ross, 1995) and more complicated econometric and index models (Wescott & Goldberg, 1984; Armstrong & Graefe, 2011) to quite innovative methods such as unreflective judgments by respondents about images and videos of political candidates (Ballew & Todorov, 2007; Benjamin & Shapiro, 2009; Antonakis & Dalgas, 2009; Armstrong, Green, Jones, & Wright, 2010; Mattes, Spezio, Kim, Todorov, Adolphs & Alvarez, 2010) or content analysis of the online Corresponding author
Proceedings of the International Symposium on the Analytic Hierarchy Process 2013 2 social networks such as Tweeter or Facebook (Tumasjan, Sprenger, Sandner & Welpe, 2010; Metaxas, Mustafaraj & Gayo-Avello, 2011). All of the above techniques have produced mixed empirical evidence of their validity.
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- Fall '18
- Zia Ul Rehman
- Analytic Hierarchy Process, SUB CRITERIA, Chief Minister of Perak, Dato Seri Diraja Dr. Zambry Abd Kadir Zambry