EC-17-bigproject1315

# EC-17-bigproject1315 - Chapters 19 20: Dealing With...

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Chapters 19 – 20: Dealing With Uncertainties TPS Example: Uncertain outcome Decision rules for complete uncertainty Utility functions Expected value of perfect information Statistical decision theory The value-of-information procedure

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TPS Decision Problem 7 OS Development Options: Option B-Conservative (BC) Sure to work (cost=\$600K) Performance = 4000 tr/sec Option B-Bold (BB) If successful, Cost=\$600K Perf.= 4667 tr/sec If not, Cost=\$100K Perf.= 4000 tr/sec Which option should we choose?
Operating System Development Options Option BB (Bold) Successful Not Successful Option BC (Conservative) Option A Performance (tr/sec) 4667 4000 4000 2400 Value (\$0.3K per tr/sec) 1400 1200 1200 720 Basic cost 600 600 600 170 Total cost 600 700 600 170 Net value NV 800 500 600 550 NV relative to Option A 250 -50 50 0

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Payoff Matrix for OS Options BB, BC State of Nature Alternative Favorable Unfavorable BB (Bold) 250 -50 BC (Conservative) 50 50
Decision Rules for Complete Uncertainty Maximin Rule . Determine minimum payoff for each option. Choose option maximizing the minimum payoff. Maximax Rule . Determine max-payoff for each option. Choose option maximizing max-payoff. Laplace Rule

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## This note was uploaded on 03/25/2008 for the course CSCI 510 taught by Professor Boehm,brown during the Fall '07 term at USC.

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EC-17-bigproject1315 - Chapters 19 20: Dealing With...

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