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Assignment 10 - The conclusions of this report are weakened...

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The rule of thumb for the yield curve is that an inverted yield curve indicates that there will be a recession in the next year. If you look at the relationship between the yield spread and the predicted GDP growth, the expected chance of a recession in the next year is 43 percent.
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Unformatted text preview: The conclusions of this report are weakened by two factors. First, these are all estimates, and like all estimates are subject to error. Second, some researchers today say that the determinants of the yield spread are not the same today as they are in past decades....
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