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at States’ Action Plans Environment ICAO ENVIRONMENTAL REPORT 2013
AVIATION AND CLIMATE CHANGE Produced by the Environment Branch
of the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO). 4
Message from the
President of the Council of ICAO
ICAO and its Member States are taking concrete steps toward coordinated and
comprehensive action to address the impact of international aviation on the environment.
Our ultimate goal in this regard remains a sustainable future for international aviation. Roberto Kobeh
González
President of the Council
of the International Civil
Aviation Organization
(ICAO) Following the adoption of a global policy by the 37th Session of the ICAO Assembly,
which invited ICAO Member States to voluntarily submit action plans on their CO2
emission reduction activities, the Organization undertook intense capacity-building
initiatives in consultation and cooperation with them. As a result, within just a few
years, this programme has successfully facilitated the preparation and submission of
State action plans representing approximately 80% of global international air traffic.
This global coverage is expected to reach 90% by the end of 2013.
ICAO has continued to develop policies, standards, guidelines and tools to facilitate
the development of a “basket” of measures which have helped Member States design
and implement their action plans. Progress has been achieved on all related elements,
including technical Standards, operational initiatives, sustainable alternative fuels, and
market-based measures (MBMs).
Each element of the basket can be used to achieve ICAO’s collective global aspirational
goals of improving annual fuel efficiency by 2%, while stabilizing global CO2 emissions
at 2020 levels.
The Organization is also focused on how to best support Member States that require
assistance to implement the measures identified in their action plans. ICAO has been
exploring partnerships with other international organizations and will continue to seek
out new ways to facilitate access to financing.
The impressive amount of work undertaken by ICAO, its Member States, the aviation
industry and other stakeholders being showcased by this 2013 edition of the ICAO
Environmental Report can serve as a basis for discussions and decisions on how best
to move ahead in a number of aviation and environment-related fields.
Continuous progress in all of these areas over the coming years will be
paramount for achieving ICAO's environmental goals, and ultimately, the
sustainable future of aviation. icao environmental report 2013 5
Message From the
Secretary General
This 2013 edition of the ICAO Environmental Report builds on the first and second
editions published in 2007 and 2010 respectively. It showcases the progress achieved
to date, bringing together a vast array of ideas and solutions and identifying important
new challenges to help advance the global discussion on aviation and the environment. Raymond
Benjamin
Secretary General of the
International Civil Aviation
Organization (ICAO) The last Session of the ICAO Assembly, held in October 2010, clearly mandated ICAO
to take bold and meaningful action that would help to lead the international aviation
community toward an environmentally sustainable future. Together we are achieving
steady progress, developing robust policies and global initiatives to encourage and
facilitate the implementation of measures to reduce the impact of international civil
aviation on the environment.
Besides the intense outreach and capacity-building we’re presently engaged in
to encourage and assist States in the preparation of national action plans on CO2
emissions reduction, not to mention important recent advances achieved by ICAO’s
Committee on Aviation Environmental Protection (CAEP), ICAO continues to lead the
development of environmental trends and tools to quantify the impacts of aviation
operations and mitigation measures on the environment. Sound technical information
and environmental data remain fundamental to well-informed and considered decisions.
Our sector has also recognized that the use of sustainable alternative fuels in commercial
flights is now a reality. Airlines are using drop-in biofuels that do not require changes
to aircraft design or fuel delivery systems, meaning that our next important challenge
in this area will be facilitating the availability of these fuels at prices and quantities in
line with the needs of operators.
Since the last ICAO Assembly, the Organization has sought to further progress its
work on market-based measures (MBMs), including the development of a framework
to guide the application of MBMs to international aviation and the feasibility of a
single global scheme. Much work is needed, and ICAO will continue to expeditiously
progress its efforts in this area.
Environmental protection is a global issue that requires collective, global solutions and
ICAO is committed to meeting its responsibilities to bring about the sustainable future
of international civil aviation. Doing so will require our sustained and global support
for social and economic development objectives, while at the same time undertaking
robust and effective measures to reduce the impact of international civil aviation on
the environment. icao environmental report 2013 6
table of contents Introductory Messages 4 Roberto Kobeh González, President of the Council of ICAO 5 Raymond Benjamin, Secretary General of ICAO ICAO Environmental Protection Programme 8 Boubacar Djibo, Director, Air Transport Bureau (ATB) Report Overview 9 Jane Hupe, Chief, Environment Branch, ATB Introduction to ICAO Environmental Activities 11 Towards Environmental Sustainability A1 38th Assembly Resolution on International Aviation and Climate Change 13 Committee on Aviation Environmental Protection (CAEP) Chapter 1 – AVIATION and Environment OUTLOOK 18 Air Traffic and Fleet Forecasts 22 Environmental Trends in Aviation to 2050 28 Enhancing European Modelling Capabilities 32 The Aviation Environmental Design Tool (AEDT) 36 Development of New Environmental Software Tools 40 ICAO Environmental Tools 42 Case Study: ASECNA Fuel Savings Using IFSET 45 Assisting Carbon Emission Management at Airports 48 Aviation and Climate: State of the Science Chapter 2 – AIRCRAFT NOISE 56 Reducing Aircraft Noise – Overview 58 Aircraft Noise Certification and New ICAO Noise Standards 61 ICAO Technology Goals for Noise – Second Independent Expert Review 65 Noise Research Aimed at Technology Solutions 73 Establishing New Noise Standards for Civil Supersonic Aircraft – Status Report Chapter 3 – LOCAL AIR QUALITY 80 Local Air Quality – Overview 83 Development of a Particulate Matter Standard for Aircraft Gas Turbine Engines 87 Industry Led NOx Emissions Technology Review 92 The ICAO Airport Air Quality Manual icao environmental report 2013 7 Chapter 4 – GLOBAL EMISSIONS 96 Global Emissions – Overview technology 100 Pushing the Technology Envelope 103 ICAO Goals for Aviation Fuel Burn Reduction from Technology 108 Development of an ICAO Aeroplane CO2 Emissions Standard Operations 112 Operational Improvements to Reduce Global Emissions – Overview 114 ICAO Block Upgrades 116 Two New ICAO Manuals on Reducing Emissions Using Enhanced Aircraft Operations 119 Impact of Operational Changes on Global Emission Levels sustainable alternative fuels 122 Sustainable Alternative Fuels for Aviation – Overview 126 Challenges for the Development and Deployment of Sustainable Alternative Fuels In Aviation 132 Stakeholder Initiatives – Development of Alternative Fuels in Aviation market-based measures 138 Market-based Measures – Overview 141 Potential Impacts of Market-based Measures on International Aviation 145 IATA Agreement on Carbon Neutral Growth 146 Offset Credits as an Option for “Destination Green” 150 Achieving Carbon Neutral Growth from 2020 154 Market-based Measures and the United Nations Chapter 5 – STATE ACTION PLANS 158 State Action Plans to Reduce Aviation CO2 Emissions Chapter 6 – ASSISTANCE AND FINANCING 168 Assistance and Financing for International Aviation Emissions Reduction 170 Financing the Development of Aviation Biofuels in Latin America and the Caribbean 174 UNDP: Leveraging Climate Finance for a Sustainable Future 178 The EU as a Partner for Low Carbon Development Chapter 7 – ADAPTATION 182 Adaptation – Overview 185 Leading the Way Toward Mitigating the Effects of Climate Change 189 Adaptation: The Time to Act is Now 192 Case Study: Climate Change Adaptation Plan at Heathrow Chapter 8 – PARTNERSHIPS AND COOPERATION WITH OTHER ORGANIZATIONS 196 ICAO’s Cooperation with other UN Bodies and International Organizations – Overview 200 Flightpath to a Sustainable Future 202 Negotiations on a Future Global Climate Change Agreement 204 International Air Transport – Key To Climate Change Response 205 ICAO Contribution to Environmental Sustainability In the United Nations System 207 UNWTO and ICAO: A Collaborative Approach on Tourism, Air Transport and Climate Change Acknowledgments
icao environmental report 2013 8
ICAO Environmental
Protection Programme Boubacar Djibo
Director, Air
Transport Bureau (ATB) In 2010, the 37th Session of the ICAO Assembly reaffirmed the responsibility of ICAO
and its Member States to achieve maximum compatibility between the safe and
orderly development of civil aviation and the quality of the environment. It focused the
Organization’s efforts in this regard on three environmental goals:
• To limit or reduce the number of people affected by significant aircraft noise.
• To limit or reduce the impact of aviation emissions on local air quality.
• To limit or reduce the impact of aviation greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions on the
global climate.
This mandate is carried out by ICAO’s Air Transport Bureau, which oversees the activities
of the Organization’s Environment Branch and Committee on Aviation Environmental
Protection (CAEP) – a recognized international forum of environmental experts from
both the regulatory and industry sectors.
The ICAO Council reviews and adopts CAEP recommendations. It informs and provides
recommendations to the ICAO Assembly, which meets every three years to establish
policies on all aviation matters including aviation environmental protection. The
Organization also produces complementary studies, reports, manuals, and circulars
on the subject of aviation and the environment.
With respect to ICAO’s work on aircraft noise, the ICAO Balanced Approach policy
for noise management provides the framework under which States can address noise
issues around their airports. In recent years the CAEP has been conducting a thorough
review of new technologies available for the reduction of noise at source, undertaking
substantial work on the environmental and economic impacts of adopting more
stringent noise certification standards. This work culminated in consensus agreement
during the CAEP/9 meeting in February 2013 to recommend a new Chapter 14 Noise
Standard which is 7 EPNdB below ICAO’s current limit.
On the issue of local air quality improvement, ICAO has already adopted regulatory
Standards for the certification of nitrogen oxide (NOx), carbon monoxide (CO), and
hydrocarbons (HC). A great deal of new information is also now becoming available
in the field of particulate matter (PM) and its impacts, which will potentially lead to the
development of a new standard in this area.
Climate change was the main focus of the environment-related deliberations at the
37th Assembly and it was noted that, to reduce international aviation CO2 emissions and
promote sustainable aviation growth, a comprehensive approach would be necessary.
This is where the Organization’s efforts have been focused since 2010, progressing
work on the development of a “basket” of measures which includes technological
standards, operational measures, alternative fuels, and market-based measures. Very
positive results have been achieved on all fronts.
I look forward to seeing how the 38th Assembly will respond to these outcomes, and
especially to the new priorities and roadmap it will set for the international aviation
community on all matters relating to aviation environmental protection. icao environmental report 2013 9 Report Overview
The ICAO Environmental Report 2013 provides an overview of the main developments
related to aviation and the environment during the period 2011 to 2013. As in previous
ICAO Environmental Reports (2007 and 2010), the goal was to consolidate into one
single publication a comprehensive and reliable compendium of information on the
work of ICAO and its Member States and other organizations involved in this area. Jane Hupe
Chief, Environment
Branch, ATB After the last ICAO Assembly in 2010, the Organization embarked on a very active work
programme with special focus on climate change issues including: development of: a
new CO2 certification Standard; sustainable alternative fuels; market-based measures;
State action plans; and assistance to States. Global debates on sustainability, in
connection with the UNCSD conference (Rio+20), have brought new perspectives to the
environmental sustainability of air transport. Discussions under the UNFCCC process
on a future global climate deal and its new flexible mechanisms have implications for
the discussions under the purview of ICAO, in particular on a global market-based
measure for international aviation. The Organization closely followed these international
developments, as well as the debates around the inclusion of international aviation
in the EU-ETS, the EU decision to “stop the clock”, and the announcement by IATA
to support a global offsetting scheme to achieve carbon neutral growth from 2020.
So much has happened during the last triennium amidst this dynamic and evolving
scenario, that it was very difficult to select the material for inclusion in this Report. It was
therefore decided to focus on the information that would be most relevant to support
well-informed debates and decisions by ICAO Member States at the 2013 Assembly,
and which would form an important basis for progressing the ICAO environmental work
in the next triennium. This information was showcased during the ICAO Symposium on
Aviation and Climate Change (May 2013), and it is now compiled within these pages
for the reader's easy reference.
This Report consists of eight chapters. Chapter 1 is an Aviation and Environment Outlook, including present and future trends in traffic, noise, and emissions.
Chapters 2, 3, and 4 are dedicated respectively to the mitigation of aviation's impact
on Aircraft Noise, Local Air Quality, and Global Emissions. Chapter 5 describes
the initiatives of the Organization in support of the preparation and submission of State
Action Plans. Chapter 6 explores avenues for Assistance and Financing, and
Chapter 7 addresses Adaptation. Finally, Chapter 8 describes ICAO’s Partnerships
and Cooperation with Other Organizations. Written in accessible language, each
chapter of the Report begins with a summary overview to familiarize readers with the
subject being addressed, followed by subject-focused articles provided by various
experts. Many of the featured articles summarize studies and reports by the foremost
international experts and renowned scientists in their fields.
I sincerely hope that you enjoy reading this Report, and that it will stimulate productive
and enlightened discussions on aviation and the environment, while at the same time,
demystifying commonly-held misconceptions. Arriving at optimal solutions begins with
clearly defining the challenges and this can only be achieved by providing the most
recent valid information. This is especially true for climate change, which is one of the
most pressing global issues of this early part of the 21st century and a top priority for icao environmental report 2013 10
the entire UN system.With the increasing engagement of
its Member States, and close cooperation with the aviation
industry and other stakeholders, ICAO is taking concrete
actions and moving closer towards the “Future We Want”:
a future in which international air transport is sustainable. About ICAO and the Environment
ICAO is a specialized agency of the United Nations created
in 1944, with the signing of the Convention on International
Civil Aviation, to promote the safe and orderly development
of international civil aviation throughout the world. It sets
standards and regulations necessary for aviation safety,
security, efficiency, capacity and environmental protection.
The Organization serves as the forum for cooperation in
all fields of civil aviation.
ICAO has been at the forefront of aviation environmental
issues since the late 1960s. The Organization’s work on
the environment focuses primarily on those problems
that benefit most from a common and coordinated
approach on a worldwide basis, namely aircraft noise
and engine emissions. Standards and Recommended
Practices (SARPs) for the certification of aircraft noise
and aircraft engine emissions are covered by Annex 16
of the Convention.
ICAO has a membership of 191Contracting States and
works closely with other UN bodies and international
organizations with an interest in aviation. ICAO has
established three environmental goals:
1. To limit or reduce the number of people affected by
significant aircraft noise.
2. To limit or reduce the adverse impact of aviation
emissions on local air quality.
3. To limit or reduce the impact of aviation
greenhouse gas emissions on the global climate. icao environmental report 2013 Acknowledgements ICAO wishes to thank the authors from various States
and disciplines who have kindly shared their expertise,
imagination and enthusiasm, along with the CAEP Working
Group Rapporteurs and Experts. The Organization is truly
grateful to them, and believes that their collective insights
will stimulate dialogue and contribute to defining sustainable
climate change solutions. ICAO looks forward to receiving
comments and suggestions on how to improve future editions
of the ICAO Environmental Report. The Environment Branch, of the ICAO Air Transport
Bureau (ATB) is in charge of progressing the work of
the Organization in this field. It is also responsible for
providing support and managing the activities of the ICAO
Committee on Aviation Environmental Protection (CAEP).
CAEP is a technical committee of the ICAO Council and
undertakes most of the work of the Organization for the
development of Standards and Recommended Practices
(SARPs) in this area. It is an international forum that involves
close to 400 experts for the study and development
of measures to minimize the impact of aviation on the
environment. Every technical proposal developed by CAEP
is analysed according to four criteria: technical feasibility,
environmental benefit, economic reasonableness, and the
interrelationship among measures. The ninth meeting of
CAEP (CAEP/9) was held from 4 to 15 February 2013.
The ICAO Council reviews and adopts the CAEP
recommendations and considers other relevant matters
in this area. It then reports to the ICAO Assembly, the
highest body of the Organization, where the main policies
on aviation environmental protection are adopted and
translated into Assembly Resolutions. The Organization
also produces studies, reports, manuals, and circulars on
the subject of aviation and environment. More information
on ICAO’s activities in this area can be found at:
11
Towards Environmental Sustainability
By Jane Hupe, Chief, Environment Branch of ICAO As this third edition of the ICAO Environmental Report
is published, we find ourselves at an exciting time; it
b...
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