ECOS2025-Peter Hao Fu.pdf - ECOS2025 East Asian Economies...

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ECOS2025 East Asian Economies – Peter Week 1: Introducing East Asian economies & Economic concepts and models used u Growth Facts: World Population 1 billion in 1900 7 billion today Life Expectancy 40 years 70 years Child Mortality(<1 years old) 25% 6% % read & write 25% 80% Poverty (<US$2 per day) Almost 1 billion 1 billion u Western countries led the world economic growth since the Industrial Revolution. u Global standard of living is improving, mainly due to growth in China and India since 1980. u East Asian Newly Industrialised Economies (NIEs) experienced ‘ growth miracle ’. Key Facts of East Asian Growth: ² Grew at historically unprecedented rates since 1960. ² Changed the patterns of world trade and lifted millions out of absolute poverty. ² Asian financial crisis led to an abrupt halt in the growth miracle, exposing structural weakness. Key Questions of East Asian Growth: ² China’s continued strong growth changed the global pattern of trade and investment. Will China continue to be the world’s economic centre of gravity? ² Can Japan be resuscitated as the most industrialised country in Asia? ² Will South Korea follow the footstep of Japan’s secular stagnation? Average Annual Growth in GDP per capita 1965–1999. Region Percent change East Asia 5.6 South Asia 2.4 North America and Western Europe 2.4 Sub-Saharan Africa -0.2 Eastern Europe and Central Asia -1.5 World Average 1.6 Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership ( RECP ): l RECP is an ASEAN-centred proposal for a regional free trade area, which would initially include the 10 ASEAN member states and those countries which have existing FTAs with ASEAN – Australia, China, India, Japan, Republic of Kora and New Zealand. l 46% of world population l 25% of world GDP Trans-Pacific Partnership ( TPP ): l TPP Agreement is one possible pathway toward realising the vision of a free trade area of the Asia-Pacific. The Asia-Pacific region is a key driver of global economic growth; close to half of all global trade, and around 70% of Australia’s trade flows through the region.
Free Trade Agreements (FTAs): Bilateral FTAs Multilateral FTAs Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP): u The difference between RCEP and TPP in terms of issue coverage may not be substantive because RECP is also aiming to be a comprehensive FTA. E.g. e-commerce is explicitly mentioned in the RECP Guiding Principles as a possible component of economic and technical cooperation. On the other hand, some issues are covered in TPP while not likely in the RECP, e.g. environment, labour and government procurement. While TPP is often perceived as having a higher ambition than the RECP, the actual negotiation outcomes, however, are not yet available. The TPP aims to be a high quality preferential trade agreement with few exemptions and extensive regulatory alignment is in areas such as labour law, environment protection and intellectual property rights. The RECP, on the other hand, sets the bar low and accepts that countries will reduce trade barriers at different rates – especially

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