RUNNING HEAD: Pilot Shortage The Commercial Airline Pilot Shortage Robert Schneider ECON 420 Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University
RUNNING HEAD: Pilot Shortage Abstract The pilot shortage within the airline industry has grown to a critical level. Many airlines are being forced to cancel flights, change routes, and get rid of aircraft due to pilots being unable to fill the cockpit seats. The airline industry is slotted to grow tremendously over the next few decades and if something is not done to help recruit aspiring pilots the industry is going to struggle to keep up. With the 1500-hour rule put in place by the Federal Aviation Administration It has made things extremely difficult on airlines to keep their numbers where they need to be.
RUNNING HEAD: Pilot Shortage The Commercial Airline Pilot Shortage The United States and the world are on the verge of a sever pilot shortage. Many airlines around the world are projected to purchase a number of new aircraft to keep up with the growing demand of air travel. With that being said it is estimated that the world will need roughly 637,000 pilots added to operate the roughly 41,000 aircraft that will be purchased. On-top of the large amount of aircraft being purchase within the next two decades there is also a large number of individuals who will be leaving their pilot positions and retiring. In the United States for instance it is estimated that roughly 42% of the active pilots at the major carriers, Delta, United, American, Southwest will retire over the next 10 years (Ostrower, 2017). This equates to about 22,000 pilots. With this information, the United States alone will need about 117,000 Airline Transport Pilots (ATP) over the course of the next two decades, this will be a hard number to achieve because the commercial sector receives many of their pilots from the regional carriers and the military. Many of today’s ATP pilots come from three main sources, Airline focused flight training academies, University programs, military, and small regional flight schools. From 2012 to 2016 the number of pilots who joined the major airlines came mostly from Airline-focused flight training academies. These academies work strictly with major airlines and identify their requirements for ATP rated pilots to get on board. Many of these students are required to sign a contract saying they will operate for the airline they are going to school for. In the next 10 years according to the International Air Transport Association (IATA) there is going to be an estimated 4.2% passenger growth and a market of 4.8 billion air passengers by 2027, that’s roughly 1.6 billion more than the current average. To meet the growing demand for
RUNNING HEAD: Pilot Shortage record air travel many airlines have placed a record number of orders on aircraft. A good example is the number of Boeing 787’s that are currently on order. Boeing began taking orders for the 787 in 2004, with the first delivery’s in 2011. In total Boeing has received 1,377 orders for the 787 while only having time to fulfill 708 orders. You can see in the following graph the
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- Spring '18
- Economics, Northwest Airlines, Delta Air Lines, Regional airline