Lec11 - The UNIVERSITY of NORTH CAROLINA at CHAPEL HILL...

Info iconThis preview shows pages 1–6. Sign up to view the full content.

View Full Document Right Arrow Icon
© 2008 Haipeng Shen 2/21/08 Lecture 11 1 STOR 155 Introductory Statistics Lecture 11: Randomness and Probability Model The UNIVERSITY of NORTH CAROLINA at CHAPEL HILL
Background image of page 1

Info iconThis preview has intentionally blurred sections. Sign up to view the full version.

View Full DocumentRight Arrow Icon
© 2008 Haipeng Shen 2/21/08 Lecture 11 2 Let’s Make A Deal : a game show back in the 90’s. http://www.letsmakeadeal.com/MontyHall.htm A player is given the choice of three doors. Behind one door is the Grand Prize (a car and a cruise); behind the other two doors, booby prizes (stinking pigs). The player picks a door, and the host peeks behind the doors and opens one of the rest of the doors. There is a booby prize behind the open door. The host offers the player either to stay with the door that was chosen at the beginning, or to switch to the remaining closed door. Which is better: to switch doors or to stay with the original choice? What are the chances of winning in either case? The Monty Hall Problem
Background image of page 2
© 2008 Haipeng Shen 2/21/08 Lecture 11 3 Three prisoners, A, B , and C, are on death row. The governor decides to pardon one of the three and chooses at random the prisoner to pardon. He informs the warden of his choice but requests that the name be kept secret for a few days. The next day, A tries to get the warden to tell him who had been pardoned. The warden refuses. A then asks which of B or C will be executed. The warden thinks for a while, then tells A that B is to be executed. Can A increase his chance of survival by swapping his fate with C ? 3 Prisoners’ Dilemma
Background image of page 3

Info iconThis preview has intentionally blurred sections. Sign up to view the full version.

View Full DocumentRight Arrow Icon
© 2008 Haipeng Shen 2/21/08 Lecture 11 4 The previous two problems are equivalent. Play it online at http://www.shodor.org/interactivate/activities/Simple How can we solve similar problems systematically? Probability models . Remarks
Background image of page 4
© 2008 Haipeng Shen 2/21/08 Lecture 11 5 We call a phenomenon random if individual outcomes are uncertain, but a regular distribution of outcomes emerges with a large number of repetitions. Example: Toss a coin; Gender of
Background image of page 5

Info iconThis preview has intentionally blurred sections. Sign up to view the full version.

View Full DocumentRight Arrow Icon
Image of page 6
This is the end of the preview. Sign up to access the rest of the document.

Page1 / 23

Lec11 - The UNIVERSITY of NORTH CAROLINA at CHAPEL HILL...

This preview shows document pages 1 - 6. Sign up to view the full document.

View Full Document Right Arrow Icon
Ask a homework question - tutors are online