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THE CHINESE UNIVERSITY OF HONG KONG Department of Decisions Sciences & Managerial Economics DSME 2011 F – Statistical Analysis for Business Decision Group Research Analysis Project What is the Major Factor Affecting the Approval Rating of the Presidents? Section Group Student ID Name DSME2011F 5
1. Summary This report aims at analyzing the causes of the changes in the approval ratings of presidents in the world. Approval ratings of different presidents are collected from six countries, such as United States, United Kingdom, Japan, Australia, Korea and Hong Kong. There are three sections in the report. Firstly, the relationship between the economic factor and approval ratings is evaluated through simple regression test. From the test result, there is no correlation between the GDP and the approval ratings. Also, the result of paired difference test indicates that the scandals do not make a significant change in the approval ratings, in other words, the major factor of change in approval rating is not the political factor. Lastly, approval ratings are compared with the time. After reviewing the relationship of approval ratings and time, sufficient evidences show that approval ratings gradually decrease when the time period increases. 2. Introduction Due to the recent news reporting a scandal of C.Y. Leung about accepting approximately four million pounds from an Australian company UGL in exchange for a vote of support in the Board meeting, dissatisfaction has been aroused among citizen 1 . In order to investigate the major factor that affect approval rating, approval ratings of six different regions are collected and will be undergone tentative with three factors which affect the approval ratings of presidents, including economic factor, political factor and time interval. The above three factors will be included in this report as they are generally accepted by public and noted as contributing factors to approval rating in most of the circumstances, while social factors will be eliminated due to the differences of social environment of regions. To ensure the objectivity of this report, the annual GDP of a region will be used to represent the economic factor, scandals will be recognize as political factor and time interval will be organized in terms of month. 3.1 Section One: Investigating the relationship between GDP and approval rating Some people may say that Economic performance of a region determines the supporting rate of a government, the better economic performance of a region, the higher approval rating of the president. In this section, Economic performance of a region will be represented by annual Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of six selected regions and simple regression test will be carried out to investigate the relationship 1 -­‐kong/article/1617047/cy-­‐leung-­‐reportedly-­‐sought-­‐further-­‐hk37-­‐ million-­‐ugl-­‐deal 1
between GDP and corresponding approval rating of President. Please be noted that

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