L11-RiskSafetyLiability

L11-RiskSafetyLiability - Risk, Safety and Liability ENGR...

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    Risk, Safety and Liability ENGR 482 Ethics and Engineering
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    Required reading: o Harris, Pritchard and Rabins, Engineering Ethics: Concepts and Cases, 2nd ed. Chapter 7, “Risk, Safety and Liability in Engineering”
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    An Engineering Responsibility o Codes of ethics require the engineer to prevent exposure of the public to unacceptable risks.
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    NSPE Code o “Hold paramount the safety, health and welfare of the public” design to “accepted engineering standards” o Do not “complete, sign, or seal plans and/or specifications that are not of a design safe to the public health and welfare in conformity with accepted engineering standards” o In “circumstances where the safety, health, property or welfare of the public are endangered” engineers must “notify their employer or client and such other authority as may be appropriate”
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    Understanding and Managing Risks o What is risk? o How do we operate engineering systems to reduce risks? o How do we design engineering systems to reduce risks? o What are acceptable risks?
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    What is risk? o One definition of “risk” is: o “Exposure to the chance of injury or loss; o a hazardous or dangerous chance” * o This definition involves both: o the probability of an event occurring o the consequences of the event * Webster’s Dictionary
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    An Engineering Definition of Risk: R i s k = × ( p r o b a b i l i t y o f e v e n t ) ( c o n s e q u e n c e s )
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    Risk is inherent in engineering o All engineering involves risk. o Innovation in design generally increases risk. More generally, any change (from proven practice) will often increase risk. o Examples: o Tacoma Narrows Bridge--1940 collapse o Three Mile Island Power Plant--1979 radiation release o Concorde airliner--2000 crash in Paris
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    Probability of failure o A nuclear reactor will “meltdown” if the control rods fail and the cooling pump fails. What is the probability of this occurring?
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    Event tree analysis of failure probability
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    Engineering Risk Assessment o Bridge foundation depths are often governed by the depth of scour, which is related to the size of the flood, defined in terms of its probability. o A 100-year flood is a flood which has a 0.01 chance of occurring in any given year. o A 500-year flood is a flood which has a 0.002 chance of occurring in any given year. R i s k = × ( p r o b a b i l i t y o f f a i l u r e ) ( c o n s e q u e n c e s )
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    Engineering risk assessment. .. o Consider a bridge footing designed to have a 0.002 annual probability of being undercut by scour in any given year. o If collapse occurs during a rush hour (1/24 probability), 10 lives will likely be lost. If collapse occurs during non rush hours (23/24 probability) 1 life will likely be lost. One way to measure this risk is… o (2 × 10 -3 )(1/24)(10) = 833 × 10 -6 (risk of death) o (2 × 10 -3 )(23/24)(1) =1917 × 10 -6 (risk of death) o Total risk is 833 × 10 -6 + 1917 × 10 -6 =2750 × 10 -6 (risk of death)
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    Problems With Event-tree Analysis:
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L11-RiskSafetyLiability - Risk, Safety and Liability ENGR...

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