The Manipulation of Risk

The Manipulation of Risk - probability of disaster, sharing...

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Classic Readings p. 437- 45 The Manipulation of Risk by Thomas C. Schelling If threats were fully believable, we would live in a safe world. 438 What one does today in a crisis affects what one can do tomorrow. Particularly in the relations between the major adversaries issues are decided not by who can bring the most force to bear in a locality, or on a particular issue, but by who is eventually willing to bring more force to beat or able to make it appear that more is forthcoming. The essence of the crisis is its unpredictability. 439 Deterrent threats are credible because they do not need to depend on willingness to commit anything like suicide in the face of a challenge. 440 “Brinkmanship” means manipulating the shared risk of war. One can incur a moderate
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Unformatted text preview: probability of disaster, sharing it with an adversary, as a compellent or deterrent device, where one could not take, a deliberate last clear step into a certain disaster. 441 What makes minor threats significant and usable is that they create a genuine risk that the thing will blow for reasons not fully under control. 442 What is in dispute is usually not the issue of the moment, but everyones expectations about how a participant will behave in the future. 443 Another important characteristic is that, thought he two players are cast as adversaries, the game is somewhat collaborative in that both can shrug it off skillfully as long as neither comes off exclusively as being responsible for the action....
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