Ejercicio 8.xlsx - iempo t Valor real Yt Valor predicho Ŷt...

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iempo t Valor real Y t Valor predicho Ŷ t Error e t = Y t - Ŷ t |e t | = |Y t - Ŷ t | e 2 t = (Y t - Ŷ t ) 2 |Y t - Ŷ t | / Y t (Y t - Ŷ t ) / Y t 158------25458-4416.074-.074360546636.100.10045560-5525.091-.091562557749.113.11366262000.000.00076562339.0
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EJERCICIO VIII LUIS ALBERTO PEDROZA HERNÁNDEZ 2810825 LUIS ALFREDO RUIZ GARCIA 2815335 9/27/2017 Valor Observado Yt Yt - YPRON [Yt - YPRON] (Yt-Ypron)^2 Yt-Ypron/Yt 166 173 -7 7 49 -0.042 179 186 -7 7 49 -0.039 195 192 3 3 9 0.015 214 211 3 3 9 0.014 220 223 -3 3 9 -0.014 SUMA -11 23 125 -0.066 DAM ECM EPM PROMEDIO 4.60 25.00 -1.310% Interpretación: DAM Podemos observar que existe un promedio de errores del 4.60 ECM El error cuadrático medio, nos interpreto más que nada una exaltación de los erro EPM Podemos observar que entre más crezca los valores muestrales EPM tiende a aum EPAM Simplementa nos muestra la exactitud que tiene la serie de tiempo Valor observado Yt Valores de pronóstico Ŷt Yt - YPRON Modelo 1 Modelo 2 6 7.5 6.3 -1.5 -0.3 1.5 6.6 6.3 6.7 0.3 -0.1 0.3 7.3 5.4 7.1 1.9 0.2 1.9 9.4 8.2 7.5 1.2 1.9 1.2 SUMA= 1.9000 1.7000 4.9000 DAM PROMEDIO= 1.2250 El segundo pronóstico es el más preciso Pronóstico Ŷt Yt - YPRON -1- [Yt - YPRON] -1- 1. Para los siguientes valores de Y t y Ŷ t de la siguiente tabla calcula la DAM, el ECM, el EPAM y EPM.
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  • Summer '17
  • juan alvarado
  • Yt, EPM, valor real yt, YPRON

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