5902 u6574u7406u7b2cu4e00u6b21.docx - Part A...

Part A 七选五 The questions in Part A are selected from throughout the unit – Weeks1 to
11
Part B 四 The questions in Part B are selected from Weeks 5 to 10
以下的都是 A B part 的
Part C 二选一 The questions in Part C are selected from Weeks 5 to 10.
20 分， 24 分钟答这题
看 reading
Past exam paper, 很有用。没有计算题。
会跟上学期有重复！！！
最好要 business example ，有时间就写，分数多就写
Week 2
Discuss lecture 1 的内容
(a) “ Risks arise from uncertainty and are therefore always caused by a lack of
knowledge .”
风险产生于不确定性，因此总是由缺乏知识造成的
-Correct. Comes from the definitions of risk and uncertainty.
Risk definition : Risk is "the effect of uncertainty on objectives.
This is a commonly accepted business definition.
It is an objective and personal value neutral definition of risk, recognizing that risks
involve both threats and opportunities

A risk is the expression of the likelihood and impact of an event with the potential to
affect the achievement of an organization's objectives
Implies that, as a minimum, some form of quantitative and/or qualitative analysis is
required for assessing risks.
Uncertainty: Uncertainty arises from a lack of knowledge regarding an outcome.
Uncertainty is the deficiency of information related to understanding or knowledge of an
event, its potential consequence on goals, and its likelihood of occurring.
Typically occurs where there is variability in potential outcomes:
• A process or activity is not perfect and involves error (eg. manufacturing)
• Forecasting the future (eg. Sales volumes or market prices).
(b) “Rumsfeld was wrong. It is not possible to distinguish between different types of
knowns and unknowns and therefore the concept of unknown unknowns is not
defined or useful.”
区分不同类型的已知和未知是不可能的，因此未知 - 未知的概念没有被定义或有用

Incorrect.
The concept of unknown-unknowns is useful because it sets a boundary on what risks can
be identified and managed.
– not all risks can be known and therefore subject to the risk management process.
Resources are also limited.
– the risk taxonomy and therefore risk identification step in the risk assessment process
excludes unknown-unknowns.
– expanding knowledge or operating with additional safety buffers are suitable strategies.
Question 2: lecture 2
Critique the following statement in respect of decision tree analysis:
“Management should always choose amongst alternative courses of actions based solely on
maximizing expected monetary payoffs ”.
最大化预期的货币回报
In answering, please:

Define “Utility”, “Risk Aversion” and “Loss Aversion”
A decision tree 定义 is a conceptual model where discrete 离散 scenario outcomes are defined
(usually in monetary terms) with different probabilities assigned to each scenario . The sum of
probability weighted payoffs is the expected value.