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Part A 七选五 The questions in Part A are selected from throughout the unit – Weeks1 to11Part B 四 The questions in Part B are selected from Weeks 5 to 10以下的都是A B part 的 Part C 二选一 The questions in Part C are selected from Weeks 5 to 10.20分，24分钟答这题看readingPast exam paper,很有用。没有计算题。会跟上学期有重复！！！最好要business example，有时间就写，分数多就写Week 2Discuss lecture 1 的内容(a) “Risksarise from uncertaintyand are therefore always caused by a lack of knowledge.”风险产生于不确定性，因此总是由缺乏知识造成的-Correct. Comes from the definitions of risk and uncertainty.Risk definition: Risk is "the effect of uncertainty on objectives.This is a commonly accepted business definition. It is an objective and personal value neutral definition of risk, recognizing that risks involve both threats and opportunities
A risk is the expression of the likelihood and impact of an event with the potential to affect the achievement of an organization's objectivesImplies that, as a minimum, some form of quantitative and/or qualitative analysis is required for assessing risks.Uncertainty: Uncertainty arises from a lack of knowledge regarding an outcome. Uncertaintyis the deficiency of information related to understanding or knowledge of anevent, its potential consequence on goals, and its likelihood of occurring.Typically occurs where there is variability in potential outcomes:• A process or activity is not perfect and involves error (eg. manufacturing)• Forecasting the future (eg. Sales volumes or market prices).(b) “Rumsfeld was wrong. It is not possible to distinguish between different types of knowns and unknowns and therefore the concept of unknown unknowns is not defined or useful.”区分不同类型的已知和未知是不可能的，因此未知-未知的概念没有被定义或有用
Incorrect. The concept of unknown-unknowns is useful because it sets a boundary on what risks canbe identified and managed. – not all risks can be known and therefore subject to the risk management process. Resources are also limited. – the risk taxonomy and therefore risk identification step in the risk assessment process excludes unknown-unknowns.– expanding knowledge or operating with additional safety buffers are suitable strategies.Question 2: lecture 2Critique the following statement in respect of decision treeanalysis:“Management should always choose amongst alternative courses of actions based solely on maximizing expected monetary payoffs”.最大化预期的货币回报In answering, please:
Define “Utility”, “Risk Aversion” and “Loss Aversion”A decision tree定义is a conceptual model where discrete离散 scenario outcomes are defined (usually in monetary terms) with different probabilities assigned to each scenario. The sum of probability weighted payoffs is the expected value.