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The concepts of risk and uncertaintyThe concept of Risk ManagementThe AS/NZS ISO 31000:2009 Standard – key definitions, processes and architectureHuman factor riskBehavioural risk perceptions biases and errorsRisk Management Process and its componentsUse of quantitative and qualitative methods to identify and analyse risksRisk appetite, risk criteria and the risk matrixRisk cultureThe risk taxonomyOperational and strategic riskEnvironmental risk and sustainabilityRisk treatmentRisk controls and control effectivenessMethods to analyze controls including bow-tie diagramRisk assurance and monitoring
1. The concepts of risk and uncertainty ¶ ¶第一周Risk1. Risk ariseswhen there is the potentialfor unexpected outcomesi.e., deviation from planned or expected.偏离计划或预期2. This might result in financial loss (gain), an unfavourable (favourable) outcome, or danger (safety).3. Risk is "the effect of uncertainty on objectives“.4. risks involve both threats and opportunities5. A risk is the expression of the likelihood and impactof an event with the potential to affectthe achievement of an organization's objectives 风险是事件发生的可能性和影响的表达，有可能影响组织目标的实现6. some form of quantitative and/or qualitative analysis is required for assessing risks.7.举例：A manufacturing process has an error rate of 1 in 100 units. We do not know which unit will fail and may be subject to recall or warranty or exactly how many may fail in a given batch.在固定的批次Uncertainty1. Uncertainty is the lack of informationrelated to understanding or knowledge of an event, its potential consequence on goals, and its likelihoodof occurring. 知识太少， 目标的潜在后果和发生的可能性。2. In order for risk to be present, two essential elements must be present: – Objectives (financial and non-financial) – Uncertainty (internal and external sources)1. 3. Uncertainty arises from a lack of knowledge regarding an outcome.4. Typically occurs where there is variability in potential outcomes:A process or activity is not perfectand involves error (eg. manufacturing)Forecasting the future (eg. Sales volumes or market prices).
2. The risk taxonomy¶¶ lecture 1 and 41. Major Risk Taxonomy CategoriesStrategicThese concern the long-term strategic objectivesof the organisation组织的长期战略目标. They can be affected by such areas as capital availability, sovereignand political risks, legal and regulatory changes, reputation and changes in the physical environment. 受资本可用性、主权和政治风险、法律和监管变化、声誉和物质环境变化等方面的影响。FinancialThese concern the effective management and control of the financesof the organisationand the effects of external factorssuch as availability of credit,foreign exchange rates, interest rate movementand other market exposures.