last37.txt - But the forecast gloom was not really about Brexit The OBRs economic and fiscal outlook explains its Brexit assumptions on page 96

last37.txt - But the forecast gloom was not really about...

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But the forecast gloom was not really about Brexit. The OBR s economic and fiscal outlook explains its Brexit assumptions on page 96: Screenshot-2017-11-23 Nov2017EFOwebversion-2 pdf This is unless I am mistaken a smooth transition to a Brexit that affects nothing. This is not on either account a Brexit that is likely to happen. We know from previous work [for example by the CEP / OECD / IMF /BoE] that anything but continued membership of the single market and customs union, transited to smoothly, will have significant negative consequences for GDP/head over the next 10 years. So if we layered on top of this forecast a probability-weighted sum of possible Brexits, the outlook would be substantially worse. Perhaps by something of the order of 0.5pp on growth each year, until the transition to our new, dislocated trading state is complete, and longer if the worse surmises about whether openness affects growth are proved correct.
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  • Fall '15
  • DR. Aimal

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