Chapter 7 - Chapter 7 Intro -Inattention to how civil wars...

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Chapter 7 Intro -Inattention to how civil wars end can be attributed to a number of common perceptions about the nature of revolution in the countryside and the international context in which such wars occur -First, most students of civil war have consistently discounted the prospects for peaceful settlements to civil war -Second, arranging a settlement in a civil war is fundamentally more difficult than mediating interstate conflicts (groups need to work to form a government) Win, Lose, or Draw -Three possible outcomes to the war 1. Victory for the government 2. Victory for the rebels 3. A negotiated settlement -Goal of the rebels can be revolutionary or secessionist -Goal of the government is to defeat the rebels GOVERNMENT Fight Quit REBELS Fight Civil War Continues Rebels Win Quit Government Wins Negotiated Settlement -East Side will continue to fight unless the expected costs of fighting exceed the expected benefits of victory -Two factors affect a party’s estimate of the expected costs of continued conflict 1. Rate at which it is absorbing costs(quickly mounting costs) 2. Actor’s estimate of the amount of time it will take for them to achieve victory (longer time = greater cost) -First factor each party must consider is the probability of achieving victory -Variables affecting an actor’s choice between quitting or continuing to fight are 1. Probability of victory 2. Costs of continued conflict 3. Additional time needed to achieve victory 4. Costs of defeat 5. Terms of settlement Determinants of Civil War Outcomes -Roy Licklider has delineated five sets of factors that are relevant to explaining how civil wars end 1. The stakes over which the conflict arose 2. The internal politics of each side in the conflict 3. The military balance in the field 4. The role of third parties 5. The nature of the polity that emerges from the settlement
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This note was uploaded on 03/30/2008 for the course ISS 325 taught by Professor Malloy during the Spring '08 term at Michigan State University.

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Chapter 7 - Chapter 7 Intro -Inattention to how civil wars...

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