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101 Ch. 14

# 101 Ch. 14 - Law of Large Numbers • Probability is a long...

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Chapter 14 From Randomness to Probability

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Random Phenomena Outcome is unknown before the event Flipping a coin Rolling a die Taking a sample from a population Long term behavior is predictable 50% heads 16.67% for 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, or 6 Sampling Distribution (Chapter 18)
Probability The long term proportion of times the outcome occurs Between 0 and 1 Flip a coin P(heads) = 0.5 Roll a die P(1) = P(2) = … = P(6) = 1/6

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Unformatted text preview: Law of Large Numbers • Probability is a long term number – Ex. Flip a coin 5 times and get 5 heads in a row, is a tail due on next flip? • Random events do not compensate for short term behavior – Over a long sequence of flips, even after a sequence of many heads in a row, P(tails after sequence) = 0.5 Law of Large Numbers • Over the long term, P(heads) = 0.5 • Long term - Infinite...
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101 Ch. 14 - Law of Large Numbers • Probability is a long...

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