Lab 3_Part 1.pdf - Lab 2 Part 1 Initial-Condition Bias Your...

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Lab 2- Part 1 : Initial-Condition Bias Your task in this lab is to learn about initial-condition bias and choosing a deletion point in steady-state simulations by simulating a model for which we know the steady-state value, the M/G/1 queue. For the particular queue you will be simulating, the steady- state mean total time in the system for customers is 2.4 hours (in a real application you would not know this). Here is our basic approach: We will take a quick look at the “warm-up” period by using an Arena dynamic plot of the cumulative average total time in the system for customers. This will give us a rough idea how much data we might want to delete. We will modify the model so that we can collect the total time in the system of individual customers, not just the cumulative average. We will simulate a number of replications, dumping the individual customers’ total times into Excel. Then we will use a VBA utility program I have written to generate a mean plot within Excel. In the end you will determine a deletion point for this model. Building the Plots 1. Copy the files NewerBiasRaw BK .doe and MeanPlotAnalyzer.xls from the Blackboard site. Open the . doe file and examine the modules. 2. Look at the Create and Process modules, and notice that the mean time between arrivals is 1 hour * , exponentially distributed, while the service time is a constant 0.8 hours. 3. Look at the Run:Setup:Replication Parameters menu and notice that currently 10 replications of 300 hours are specified, with no warm up (deletion). Thus, about 300 customers arrive during a single replication.
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  • Spring '12
  • NguyenXuanLong,JohnLafferty

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