WX Modifcation 2008-1.doc - Fireline Leadership in the Brave New World of Weather Modification and Modern Wildland Fire Behavior Keep Informed on Fire

WX Modifcation 2008-1.doc - Fireline Leadership in the...

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Fireline Leadership in the Brave New World of Weather Modification and Modern Wildland Fire Behavior Keep Informed on Fire Weather Conditions and Obtain Forecasts Base All Actions on Current and Expected Fire Behavior Unfamiliar with Weather and Local Factors Influencing Fire Behavior Learning New Indicators Fred J. Schoeffler Sheff, LLC January 2008 “Have nothing to do with the unfruitful deeds of darkness, but rather expose them.” Ephesians 5:11. 0
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INTRODUCTION It’s almost ten years ago to the day that I wrote a similar paper and made a similar presentation to my esteemed Hot Shot colleagues. My goal is to hopefully educate you all about a very real, very disturbing phenomenon occurring worldwide on a daily basis. In fact NOAA readily admits to over fifty (50) on-going Weather Modification projects occurring in the United States today. This doesn’t include what “The Government,” the military, and “They” are doing. Weather Modification certainly affects us as human beings, the weather, and our climate. The very first Fire Order is “ Keep Informed on Fire Weather Conditions and Forecasts .” So by extension, Weather Modification affects us as Fireline Supervisors, because weather influences fire behavior. The most unpredictable element of weather is, of course, the wind. Many of the Weather Modification projects radically affect the wind, especially HAARP, so much of the following information is about other weather and the new indicators you’ll need to watch for. And not all this information deals with “weather modification,” per se. My goal is to show you, among other things, what indicators to look for – in the clouds and in the smoke columns. Wildland Firefighting is risky enough. The weather is fairly unpredictable without someone modifying it. When I was growing up, with few exceptions, “The Weatherman” was almost always correct in his forecasts. (Back in the day, they were all men). If he said it was going to be a sunny day, well it was a sunny day, and if he said it was going to rain it actually rained, just like he said it would. Nowadays, the poor weathermen and women have a fairly rough time trying to get it right and readily admit they can’t give you an accurate forecast more than fives days out. And what about all the times that you hear these words relating to weather - “ unpredicted ” or rare ” or “ unusual ” or one of my favorites, “ without warning .” Our meteorologists and other weather folks have some of the most sophisticated weather-predicting and weather- observing instruments in history, e.g. Doppler radar, satellites, and the like, yet we often hear these words especially as they relate to tornadoes and severe storms. These “events” appear to just appear out of nowhere “without warning.” I contend it’s not all their fault.
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