Exam DEC 2015 Solutions.docx - THE COPPERBELT UNIVERSITY SESSIONAL EXAMINATIONS DECEMBER 2015 SCHOOL OF GRADUATE STUDIES GBS 660 PRODUCTION AND

Exam DEC 2015 Solutions.docx - THE COPPERBELT UNIVERSITY...

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THE COPPERBELT UNIVERSITY SESSIONAL EXAMINATIONS DECEMBER 2015 SCHOOL OF GRADUATE STUDIES GBS 660: PRODUCTION AND OPERATIONS MANAGEMENT TIME ALLOWED THREE (3) HOURS INSTRUCTIONS TO CANDIDATES 1. You are required to answer any FIVE questions. 2. Marks are indicated on each question. 3. You must show ALL your workings clearly to get FULL marks. PLEASE DO NOT TURN THE QUESTION PAPER UNTIL YOU ARE TOLD TO DO SO.
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Question 1 a. Identify four components of a time series. Which one of these is rarely forecast? Why is this so? (6 Points) Trend, seasonality, cycles, and random variation. Since random variations follow no discernible pattern, they cannot be predicted, and thus are not forecast. b. A sales manager wants to forecast monthly sales (in $‘000) of the machines the company makes using the following monthly sales data. Month Balance 1 38 2 26 3 35 4 34 5 27 6 35 7 44 8 37 c. Forecast the monthly sales of the machine for month 9, using the three-month moving- average method. (4 Points) F 9 = D 8 + D 7 + D 6 3 = 37 + 44 + 35 3 = 116 3 = $ 38.667 ( $'000 ) d. Use the 3-month weighted moving-average method to calculate the forecast for month 9. The weights are 0.60, 0.30, and 0.10, where 0.60 refers to the most recent demand. (4 Points) F 9 = 0.6 37 + 0.3 44 + 0.1 35 = $ 38.9 ( $'000 ) e. If the forecast for period 7 is 43, what is the forecast for period 9 using exponential smoothing with an alpha equal to 0.30? (6 Points) F 8 = αD 7 +( 1 α ) F 7 = .3 44 +( 1 .3 )∗ 43 = 43.3 F 9 = αD 8 +( 1 α ) F 8 = .3 37 +( 1 .3 )∗ 43.3 = $ 41.41 ( ' 000 ) Question 2 2
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ITEM: XYZ Lot Size: Description: Lead Time: 3 weeks Date 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Gross requirements 40 140 60 40 180 65 90 Scheduled receipts 200 Projected on Hand 100 Planned receipts Planned order releases a. Use the information from the above Table above to answer the following questions. i. If an FOQ of 100 units is used, how many planned order releases are there for item XYZ? (5 Points) ITEM: XYZ Lot Size: FOQ = 100 Description: Lead Time: 3 weeks Date 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Gross requirements 40 140 60 40 180 65 90 Scheduled receipts 200 Projected on Hand 100 60 120 60 20 40 75 75 85 Planned receipts 100 100 100 100 Planned order releases 100 100 100 100 FOUR POR 3
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ii. If an L4L lot-sizing rule is used, how many planned order releases are there for item XYZ? (5 Points) ITEM: XYZ Lot Size: L4L Description: Lead Time: 3 weeks Date 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Gross requirements 40 140 60 40 180 65 90 Scheduled receipts 200 Projected on Hand 100 60 120 60 20 0 0 0 0 Planned receipts 160 65 90 Planned order releases 160 65 90 THREE POR iii. If a POQ lot-sizing rule is used, where P = 3, how many planned order releases are there for item XYZ? (5 Points) ITEM: XYZ Lot Size: POQ = 3 Description: Lead Time: 3 weeks Date 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Gross requirements 40 140 60 40 180 65 90 Scheduled receipts 200 Projected on Hand 100 60 120 60 20 65 0 0 0 Planned receipts 225 90 Planned order releases 225 90 TWO POR
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