Chap 4 EX v2-1.xlsx - Trend Projection Actual Demand Dt 100...

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Trend Projection Month Trend 1 May 100 100.0 104.24 Exponentia 2 Jun 93 100.0 103.61 F(t+1) =alp 3 Jul 96 96.9 102.98 4 Aug 110 96.33333 95.8 96.5 102.35 Trend/Regr 5 sep 124 99.66667 104.4 102.6 101.72 y = a + b(x) 6 Oct 119 110 117.0 112.2 101.09 7 Nov 92 117.6667 119.1 115.3 100.46 8 Dec 83 111.6667 102.8 104.8 99.83 MAD 9 Jan 101 98 89.8 95.0 99.2 MSE 10 Feb 96 92 95.4 97.7 98.57 MAPE 11 Mar 93.33333 95.6 96.9 97.94 12 97.31 13 alpha 96.68 14 0.45 96.05 13 96.68 Actual Demand Dt 3 mo. Moving Average 3 mo. Weighted Moving Average (1,2,5) Exponential Smoothing Level Ft
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al Smoothing Formula average(c3:c5) pha*Dt + (1-a)*Ft (c5*5+c4*2+c3*1)/(1+2+5) ression Formula ) $c$16*c3+(1-$c$16)*f3 y= 104.87-.63(x) ABS: Actual - Forecast MAD^2 MAD/Actual
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SUMMARY OUTPUT Regression Statistics Multiple R 0.150222 R Square 0.022567 Adjusted R -0.099613 Standard E 13.32115 Observatio 10 ANOVA df SS MS F ignificance F Regression 1 32.77576 32.77576 0.184701 0.678705 Residual 8 1419.624 177.453 Total 9 1452.4 Coefficients tandard Erro t Stat P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0% Intercept 104.8667 9.100078 11.52371 2.917E-06 83.88185 125.8515 83.88185 125.8515 X Variable -0.630303 1.46661 -0.429769 0.678705 -4.012312 2.751706 -4.012312 2.751706
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FORECASTING For Trend and Regression Questio Models: Utilizing Data Analysis in exce Naïve data tab, data analysis, regressio Moving Average Weighted Moving Average
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