MGT 314, Forecasting, kahfil.docx - Forecasting Forecasting...

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Forecasting Forecasting is used to predict the demand for some future dates. It is used to state the future value of a variable like demand. This tool is used to calculate the required budget for the production. The Kohinoor chemical uses linear trend, exponential smoothing and tracking signal to forecast the demands. Linear trend: The five years data of linear trend equation are given here: T Actual demand(y) T 2 ty 1 197391.00 1.00 197391.00 2 177127.00 4.00 354254.00 3 199750.00 9.00 599250.00 4 226212.00 16.00 904848.00 5 244088.00 25.00 1220440.00 Period Actual Forecast Actual- Forecast Actual forecast 1 197391.00 180418.00 16973.00 16973.00 2 177127.00 194666.00 -17539.00 17539.00 3 199750.00 208914.00 -9164.00 9164.00 4 226212.00 223162.00 3050.00 3050.00 5 244088.00 237410.00 6678.00 6678.00 Actual forecast = 53404 ¿ ¿ MAD=53404.00/5=10681 Exponential smoothing Kohinoor Chemicals generally forecast demand of the product based on previous order, exponential is also used by them. Actual demand of Tibet Ball Soap is used in exponential smoothing calculation. Here, (α=.10) Forecasting demand for 5 years
Period Actual Demand (unit) Forecasted demand
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