VICENT STANSLAUS tyr imebindiwa.doc - THE CAUSALITY EFFECTS OF MACROECONOMIC FACTORS ON ECONOMIC GROWTH IN TANZANIA VICENT STANSLAUS A DISSERTATION

VICENT STANSLAUS tyr imebindiwa.doc - THE CAUSALITY EFFECTS...

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THE CAUSALITY EFFECTS OF MACROECONOMIC FACTORS ONECONOMIC GROWTH IN TANZANIAVICENT STANSLAUSA DISSERTATION SUBMITTED IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THEREQUIREMENTS FOR THE AWARD OF THE DEGREE OF MASTERS OFSCIENCE IN ECONOMICS OF THE OPEN UNIVERSITY OF TANZANIA2017
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CERTIFICATIONThe undersigned certifies that, he has read and hereby recommends for acceptanceby Open University of Tanzania a Dissertation entitled: “The causality effects ofmacroeconomic factors on economic growth in Tanzania “in partial fulfillment of therequirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Economics of Open Universityof Tanzania..................................................Dr. R. Gwahula (Supervisor)……................................Dateii
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COPYRIGHTNo part of this dissertation may be reproduced, stored in any retrieval system ortransmitted in any form by means; electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording,or otherwise without prior written permission of the author or The Open Universityof Tanzania on that behalf.iii
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DECLARATIONI, Vicent Stanslaus,dohereby declare that this dissertation is my own original work,and it has not been presented and will not be presented to any other university forsimilar or any degree award...............................................Signature.......................................Dateiv
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DEDICATIONTo God Almighty and to my grandmother Annamalia Nyakato.v
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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTThis dissertation report could not be completed without the help of many people. Itis exceedingly difficult to mention all those who helped me in one direction oranother, only to name the few, I would like first to extend my sincere thanks andadmiration to my supervisor Dr. R. Gwahula for his academic guidance, criticalreview of my report drafts, encouragement and advice in whole period of research.May God bless him abundantly.Special thanks to my family, Dativa Raphael (wife), Innocent M. Vicent (son) andVictoria K. Vicent (daughter). I wish also to extend my sincere thanks to my uncleand sponsor Gratian Mushumbusi.Lastly, I would like to express my sincere gratitude to all academic and nonacademic staffs at the Open University of Tanzania and to my friends and colleaguesin class for their support during the course and report writing.vi
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ABSTRACTThis study assessed the causal effects of macroeconomic factors of economic growthin Tanzania. The factors under study included GDP, inflation, money supply (M3)and government expenditure. The study was motivated by the Granger-causalitymethod which unlike other methods on similar studies underscores the importance ofmultiple causations of economic variables over and above normal relationshipsmodeling; it combines the four macro-economic variables in a multiple vausationmodeling through Vector Auto Regressive (VAR) models. The study used STATAsoftware to analyse the data. It also used VAR, Unit root test, OLS, multivariatecointegration test and the Granger causality test. The main findings of the studyreveal that inflation rate has a significant effect on the economic growth in Tanzania.
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