ADL_BEVs_vs_ICEVs_FINAL_November_292016.pdf - Battery Electric Vehicles vs Internal Combustion Engine Vehicles A United States-Based Comprehensive

ADL_BEVs_vs_ICEVs_FINAL_November_292016.pdf - Battery...

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A United States-Based Comprehensive Assessment Battery Electric Vehicles vs. Internal Combustion Engine Vehicles
Contents Executive Summary 1 Summary of Findings 4 Introduction to BEVs 5 Economic Assessment: Total Cost of Ownership 7 Total Cost of Ownership and True Vehicle Cost 8 Environmental Assessment: Global Warming Potential 11 Environmental Assessment: Secondary Environmental Impacts 14 Alternative Views 16 Technology Forecast: BEVs and ICEVs in 2025 21 Conclusion 25 References 26 Appendices 28 John W. Brennan Managing Director, Arthur D. Little, Strategy & Organization, Boston [email protected] The authors acknowledge Hui Zhao, Tom Parish, Brian St. Amand, and Mike Gourd for their assistance in preparing this report. Authors: Timothy E. Barder, Ph.D. Manager, Arthur D. Little, Strategy & Organization, Boston [email protected]
Battery Electric Vehicles vs. Internal Combustion Engine Vehicles 1 A United States-Based Comprehensive Assessment Battery electric vehicles (BEVs) do not consume gasoline or produce tailpipe carbon emissions, placing the promise of an environmentally sustainable driving experience within reach of the average consumer. However, the question remains: “Do BEVs truly offer an environmental advantage with respect to global warming potential and secondary environmental impacts – and if so, at what cost?” To address this question, Arthur D. Little conducted a total lifecycle economic cost and environmental impact analysis of Lithium-ion battery electric vehicles (BEVs) versus internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs) to further understand BEVs and their transforma- tive potential. This study models the relative impacts of new BEVs and ICEVs in the United States for the latest full calendar year for which data is available, 2015, and it projects the economic and environmental impacts of BEVs and ICEVs over the entire assumed twenty-year lifetime for a US passenger vehicle. Given that this is a rapidly evolving market, our study also forecasts the economic and environmental impacts that new BEVs and ICEVs will have in 2025, taking into account salient expected developments in battery technology, vehicle range, and fuel economy standards. In order to determine the true cost and environmental impacts from BEVs, we performed a comprehensive quantitative analysis excluding any government incentives or subsidies. Our study investigated every stage of the vehicle’s lifecycle, from R&D and production, including sourcing of raw materials, through ownership and end-of-life disposal. We evaluated the impacts associated with each component of the vehicle, from the novel technologies and chemistries involved in battery production to the In-Use energy requirements (i.e., gasoline and electricity, from well-to-wheels) necessary to power a vehicle. We constructed models that calculate the 2015 Total Cost of Ownership (TCO), Global Warming Potential (GWP), and Secondary Environmental Impacts (e.g., Human Toxicity Potential characterized as Disability Adjusted Life Years lost) for BEVs and ICEVs. We also forecast how BEV and

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