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The PRC-Taiwan Crisis; Assessing Alternative OutcomesTanner SmithINTL401Professor Andrew Harter17 February 2013
Section I: Introduction. The People’s Republic of China (PRC) – Taiwan Crisis was centered around Taiwan’s presidential election between the Kuomintang’s (KMT) candidate Ma Ying Jeon and Taiwan Solidarity Union’s (TSU) candidate Shu Chin-Chiang.Ma Ying Jeon and the KMT’s political stance is for “One China and prefers to maintain the status quo between nations (The PRC-Taiwan Crisis, 5).” Shu Chin-Chiang and TSU’s political stance is that Taiwan has its own identity and nationhood and should draft a new constitution and “establish state-to-state relationswith the PRC (The PRC-Taiwan Crisis, 5).” The PRC launched an unofficial campaign to help elect Ma Ying Jeon and as support increased for Shu Chin-Chiang the PRC enacted military measures to persuade the voters against voting for Shu Chin-Chiang for fear of an attack if he was elected president.From this scenario there are three different plausible outcomes; a diplomatic solution to the increasing tension, limited intervention by the PRC, or a direct attack to Taiwan by the PRC. The outcome that I believe will be most likely to occur is limited intervention by the PRC, thereby forcing the people of Taiwan to vote for Ma Ying Jeon (KMT) in order to prevent a conflict between the two regions. The second most likely to occur is a direct attack against Taiwan after Shu Chin-Chiang (TSU) is elected president and moves forward with separating Taiwan from the PRC. The least likely to occur is the two regions reaching a diplomatic solution.Section II–Outcome Assessed to be most likely to Occur: Limited InterventionAfter assessing all available information on the PRC-Taiwan crisis I have deemed that it is probable that the PRC will use limited intervention to persuade the votes in Taiwan for pro-PRC relations. It was no secret that the PRC wanted Ma Ying Jeon to be elected Taiwan’s next president because of his political party’s stance towards the PRC and the further Shu Chin-
Chiang pulled away in the polls the more the PRC’s military was active. The PRC’s activity