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Unformatted text preview: CHILDREN AND FAMILIES EDUCATION AND THE ARTS ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENT HEALTH AND HEALTH CARE INFRASTRUCTURE AND TRANSPORTATION INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit institution that helps improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis. This electronic document was made available from as a public service of the RAND Corporation. LAW AND BUSINESS NATIONAL SECURITY Skip all front matter: Jump to Page 16 POPULATION AND AGING PUBLIC SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY TERRORISM AND HOMELAND SECURITY Support RAND Purchase this document Browse Reports & Bookstore Make a charitable contribution For More Information Visit RAND at Explore the RAND National Defense Research Institute View document details Limited Electronic Distribution Rights This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law as indicated in a notice appearing later in this work. This electronic representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for non-commercial use only. Unauthorized posting of RAND electronic documents to a non-RAND website is prohibited. RAND electronic documents are protected under copyright law. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of our research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please see RAND Permissions. This report is part of the RAND Corporation research report series. RAND reports present research findings and objective analysis that address the challenges facing the public and private sectors. All RAND reports undergo rigorous peer review to ensure high standards for research quality and objectivity. Using Behavioral Indicators to Help Detect Potential Violent Acts A Review of the Science Base Paul K. Davis, Walter L. Perry, Ryan Andrew Brown, Douglas Yeung, Parisa Roshan, Phoenix Voorhies C O R P O R AT I O N N AT I ONAL DEFENSE R ESE AR C H IN S TITUTE Using Behavioral Indicators to Help Detect Potential Violent Acts A Review of the Science Base Paul K. Davis, Walter L. Perry, Ryan Andrew Brown, Douglas Yeung, Parisa Roshan, Phoenix Voorhies Prepared for the United States Navy Approved for public release; distribution unlimited The research described in this report was prepared for the United States Navy. The research was conducted within the RAND National Defense Research Institute, a federally funded research and development center sponsored by the Office of the Secretary of Defense, the Joint Staff, the Unified Combatant Commands, the Navy, the Marine Corps, the defense agencies, and the defense Intelligence Community under Contract W74V8H-06-0002. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Davis, Paul K., 1952Using behavioral indicators to help detect potential violent acts : a review of the science base / Paul K. Davis, Walter L. Perry, Ryan Andrew Brown, Douglas Yeung, Parisa Roshan, Phoenix Voorhies. pages cm Includes bibliographical references. ISBN 978-0-8330-8092-9 (pbk. : alk. paper) Terrorism—Prevention. 2. Behavioral assessment. 3. Psychology—Methodology. I. Title. HV6431.D3268 2013 363.325'12--dc23 2013024014 The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit institution that helps improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. Support RAND—make a tax-deductible charitable contribution at R® is a registered trademark Cover photo by Karl Baron via flickr © Copyright 2013 RAND Corporation This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorized posting of RAND documents to a non-RAND website is prohibited. RAND documents are protected under copyright law. Permission is given to duplicate this document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of our research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please see the RAND permissions page ( ). RAND OFFICES SANTA MONICA, CA • WASHINGTON, DC PITTSBURGH, PA • NEW ORLEANS, LA • JACKSON, MS • BOSTON, MA DOHA, QA • CAMBRIDGE, UK • BRUSSELS, BE Preface This report reviews the scientific literature relating to observable behavioral indicators that might, along with other information, help detect potential attacks, such as those by suicide terrorists or the laying of improvised explosive devices (IEDs). The report is intended to be of interest to officials contemplating future investments amidst tightening budgets, and to researchers and analysts. It deals with individual-level indicators and does not extend to detecting society-level phenomena, such as social movements or insurgent groups. Our research built on prior RAND Corporation efforts, notably: • Walter L. Perry, Claude Berrebi, Ryan Andrew Brown, John Hollywood, Amber Jaycocks, Parisa Roshan, Thomas Sullivan, and Lisa Miyashiro, Predicting Suicide Attacks: Integrating Spatial, Temporal, and Social Features of Terrorist Attack Targets, 2013. • Paul K. Davis and Kim Cragin, eds., Social Science for Counter­ terrorism: Putting the Pieces Together, 2009. • Thomas Sullivan and Walter L. Perry, “Identifying Indicators of Chemical, Biological, Radiological and Nuclear (CBRN) Weapons Development Activity in Sub-National Terrorist Groups,” Journal of Operational Research and Society, Vol. 55, No. 4, April 2004, pp. 361–374. Comments and questions are welcome and can be addressed to Paul Davis in Santa Monica ([email protected]), Ryan Brown in Santa Monica ([email protected]), or Walter Perry in Arlington, Virginia ([email protected]). iii iv Using Behavioral Indicators to Help Detect Potential Violent Acts This report was sponsored by Dr. Ivy Estabrooke, Thrust Manager for the Human, Social, Culture and Behavior Modeling program, and Mr. Lee Mastoianni, Thrust Manager for Force Protection, of the Office of Naval Research. The research was conducted within the International Security and Defense Policy Center of the RAND National Defense Research Institute, a federally funded research and development center sponsored by the Office of the Secretary of Defense, the Joint Staff, the Unified Combatant Commands, the Navy, the Marine Corps, the defense agencies, and the defense Intelligence Community. For more information on the RAND International Security and Defense Policy Center, see isdp.html or contact the director (contact information is provided on the web page). Contents Preface . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . iii Figures . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ix Tables . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xi Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xiii Acknowledgments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xli Abbreviations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xliii ChAPTer One Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 Background . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 Scope. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 Types of Attack, Attacker, and Behaviors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 Treatment of Privacy and Civil Liberty Issues. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 Structure of Approach . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 Recurring Themes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 Chapter Structure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14 ChAPTer TwO Developing Intent . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 Motivational and Emotional Development . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 Cognitive and Emotional Underpinnings . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 Intellectual, Ideological, Religious, and Other Motivations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22 Less Specific Motivations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24 Psychological Convergence . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25 Recruitment or Joining . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26 Summary Activities and Indicators . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27 v vi Using Behavioral Indicators to Help Detect Potential Violent Acts ChAPTer Three Planning and Laying Groundwork . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29 Development of Strategic Priorities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30 Target Identification, Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance . . . . 30 Materiel Acquisition, Testing, and Development . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31 Development of CONOPs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32 Training and Mission Rehearsal. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32 Long Lead-Time Preparations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33 Illustrative Planning Behavioral Indicators . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34 ChAPTer FOur Immediate Pre-execution . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37 Psychological and Physiological Preparation for Operation. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38 Changing Patterns of Social Interaction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41 Ritual Practices . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41 Deception and Concealment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43 Logistical Preparation for Operation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44 ChAPTer FIve execution and Aftermath . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47 Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49 Deployment and Positioning . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49 Coordination and Communication . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50 Target Selection, Shaping, and Feints . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50 Main Attack(s) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51 Post-Attack Reporting and Strategic Communication . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52 Protective Measures and Adaptation. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53 Behavioral Indicators of Execution and Aftermath . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54 ChAPTer SIx Technologies and Methods. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 57 Detection and Analysis of Communication Patterns . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 57 Online Communication and Activities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 58 Text Analysis and Natural Language Processing. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 60 Content Analysis of Speech . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65 Threatening Communications . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66 Assessing the Communication-Pattern Methods . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 68 Contents vii Pattern-of-Life Data. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69 Mobile-Device Tracking . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69 Existing Records . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71 Machine Learning and Big-Data Analysis Drawing on Online and Other Activity. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 73 Assessing Pattern-of-Life Approaches. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 75 Data on Movement and Physiological State . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 76 Kinetics and Gross Motor Movement . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 76 Physiological State and Reactions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 81 Video Data for Observing Kinetic or Other Indicators . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 96 Forensic Data for Observing Kinetic, Physiological, or Other Indicators . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 97 Testing and Validation Attempts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 99 Assessing the Kinetic and Physiological Approaches . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 105 Distinctions Helpful Amidst Controversy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 109 ChAPTer Seven Cross-Cutting Issues . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 115 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 115 Appropriate Layering . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 117 Layering and Screening . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 117 A Different Kind of Screening: The Trusted Traveler Concept . . . . . . . . 120 Sensitivity and Selectivity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 121 Basic Concepts and Terms . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 121 Effectiveness of Screening Without Stimulation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 125 Improving Effectiveness with Behavioral Stimulation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 125 General Considerations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 126 Physiological Responses to Probing . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 127 Verbal Probing and Human Observation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 128 Dealing with Countermeasures and Adaptation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 130 Observation Distance, Covertness, and Automaticity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 131 Combining Information: From Heuristics to Information Fusion. . . . . . . . 132 Initial Observations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 132 Heuristic and Simple-Model Methods . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 133 Information Fusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 137 Other Combining Methods . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 140 viii Using Behavioral Indicators to Help Detect Potential Violent Acts Summing Up Combining Methods . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 143 Mitigating the Consequences of False Alarms. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 144 Improving the System’s Efficiency . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 145 Reducing Effects on Dignity and Perceived Violations of Civil Liberties . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 145 Deterring Abuse . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 147 Why It Matters, Even If Detection Were the Primary Objective . . . . . . . 147 Summing Up . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 148 ChAPTer eIGhT Conclusions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 149 Continuing Themes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 149 Observations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 150 Operator Initiative Versus Scientific Testing of Methods . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 150 Knowledge in the Private Sector . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 151 The Big Data Phenomenon . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 152 Information Fusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 153 Informing Investments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 155 Takeaways . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 157 APPenDIxeS A. Methodological notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 161 B. references and Cases to Support historic examples . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 165 C. references and Cases to Support Indicator Tables . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 177 D. Information Fusion Metho...
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