30171.0001.001.pdf - STATISTICAL INFERENCE FROM...

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STATISTICAL INFERENCE FROM MULTIDISCIPLINARY ACCIDENT INVESTIGATION JAMES O'DAY WILLIAM L . CARLSON R I CHARD DOUGLR S S RICHARD J. KAPLAN HIGHWAY SAFETY RESEARCH I N S T I T U T E THE UNIVERSITY O F MICHIGAN AXN ARBOR, MICHIGAN 48104 JUNE 1973 CONTRACT NO. DOT-HS-03 1-2-3 50 F I N A L REPORT PREPARED FOR : DEPARTMENT O F TRANSPORTATION NATIONAL HIGHWAY T R A F F I C SAFETY ADMINISTRATION WASHINGTON, D.C. 20590
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T E C H N I C A L R E P O R T S T A N D A R D T I T L E P A G E 1 DOT HS-801 111 I I I 3. R * c ~ p l e n t ' r Catolog No. - 1. Report No. 2. Government A c c e r r ~ o n N o . - - - -------, -I ,,- . -- -.--. 1,- . - - 12. Sponsoring Agency Name and Address U.S. Department of Transportation NATIONAL HIGHWAY TRAFFIC SAFETY ADMINISTRATION WASHINGTON, D . C . 20590 I 4, T l t l * and Subtitle STATISTICAL INFERENCE FROM TID DISCIPLINARY ACCIDENT INVESTIGATION. 7. JAMES O'DAY, WILLIAM L. CARLSON, RICHARD DOUGLASS Ah3 RICHARD J. KAPLAN -- - - FINAL REPORT 14. Sponror~ng Agency Code J 5. Report Date August 1974 - 6. Perlorm~ng Organ, ration Code 8. Perfortt~,ng O r ~ o n ~ z a t l o l ~ I I S . Supr lementory Notes The opinions, findings and conclusions expressed i n t h i s publication a r e those of t h e author and not n e c e s s a r i l y those of t h e National Highway T r a f f i c Safety Acininistration. 16. Abstroci Multi-disciplinary accident i n v e s t i g a t i o n (MDAI) r e p o r t s generated by more than twenty contractors have been compiled i n d i g i t a l form f o r a n a l y s i s . Methods f o r drawing inferences regarding t h e r e l a t i o n s h i p between crash s e v e r i t y and i n j u r y s e v e r i t y i n t h e face of poorly defined samples a r e presented. The problems of determining accident and i n j u r y causation f a c t o r s a r e discussed. Certain sub-sets of t h e MDAI d a t a , p a r t i c u l a r l y when considered with police- reported accident information from t h e same j u r i s d i c t i o n s , can be used t o estimate the frequency of occurrence of some phenomena of i n t e r e s t . F i n a l l y a plan is presented f o r a modification of t h e present MDAI program which should a'chieve both a s t a t i s t i c a l l y representative sample of accidents f o r a l a r g e portion of t h e United S t a t e s and a c a p a b i l i t y t o conduct s p e c i a l s h o r t term s t u d i e s t o answer s p e c i f i c questions. r- UM-HSRI-SA-73-4 9. P e r f o r m ~ n ~ Organlzatlon Name and Address HIGHWAY SAFETY RESEARCH INSTITUTE UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN HURON PARKWAY & BAXTER ROAD ANN ARBOR, MICHIGAN 48105 'I 17. Kev words I 18. D ~ s t r ~ b u t ~ o n Statement 10. Work U n ~ t N o 11. Contract or Grant NO. DOT-HS-031-2-350 13. Type of Report and Perloa Covered MOT& VEHICLE ACCIDENTS ACCIDENT INVESTIGATION METHODS STATISTICAL ANALYSIS REGRESS I O N MODELING Document i s available t o the public through the National Technical Information Service, Springfield, Virginia 22151 I 19.
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