Trends & Emerging Issues Implications Brunei.pdf

Trends & Emerging Issues Implications Brunei.pdf - CSPS...

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CSPS Strategy and Policy Journal, Volume 6, Dec 2016 1 Trends and Emerging Issues: Implications For Brunei Darussalam Diana Cheong, Ivana Milojevi ć and Redhuan Rajak Abstract This paper is based on focused research which was conducted by the Centre for Strategic and Policy Studies (CSPS) as part of an ongoing Foresight Study Project 1 , in order to: (1) identify current and emerging issues as well as trends likely to impact Brunei in the near and medium term future, and (2) prioritise emerging issues and trends in order to provide specific future- oriented policy advice on a number of topics of concern. Increasing socio-ecological and informational complexity in the early 21st century has shattered the assumption of a ‘normal’ or ‘given’ future. Rapid change among cultures and with technology means that we can no longer expect the future to be an uneventful continuation of the past or present. Apparently unlikely and marginal events can, and often do, create significant ripple effects not only locally but also globally. Global systems have become interconnected: one relatively small event in one country can be felt across global markets, as well as impact collective thinking on a number of issues. We are faced with disruptive forms of change (technological, ecological, social and political) in a rapidly shifting landscape. Scanning for signals and events that may be significant in the future should thus also be an ongoing effort and activity if policymaking is to be responsive and anticipative. The outcomes of the CSPS’s ongoing horizon scanning for emerging issues and trends research summarized here are, therefore, preliminary and should be regularly updated. Given the current rate of change, only a continual scanning process to identify relevant upcoming issues early on can assist governments and businesses to create responsive and anticipatory decision-making. This ensures policymakers and leaders “evaluate the situations strategically in order to reduce ‘surprises’, to increase the room for manoeuvre, and to improve the overall flexibility of 1 Foresight Study Project was led by José Ramos of Action Foresight, Australia. This policy brief makes extensive use of the Train the Trainers Manual for the course in Strategic Foresight and Horizon Scanning produced by Dr Ramos for the CSPS.
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Trends and Emerging Issues: Implications For Brunei Darussalam 2 governance” (Habegger, 2010). In addition, the process ensures that policies and strategies are relevant to a landscape of rapid and unexpected change. As this journal article gives a general overview of identified issues, two main policy recommendations are: 1. Horizon scanning for emerging issues and trends needs to be comprehensive, ongoing and done across governmental sectors; 2. Specific issues and trends, selected after thorough research focused on both identification and prioritization, subsequently need to be addressed in more detail and in terms of their potential impact. This should be followed up with very specific policy recommendations
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