2019-07-19-The_Economist_UK_-_20_07_2019.pdf -...

Unformatted text preview: РЕЛИЗ ПОДГОТОВИЛА ГРУППА "What's News" VK.COM/WSNWS Asia’s homegrown trade war The electoral logic of racist tweets Why profits have peaked Cross-dressing in China JULY 20TH–26TH 2019 РЕЛИЗ ПОДГОТОВИЛА ГРУППА "What's News" VK.COM/WSNWS РЕЛИЗ ПОДГОТОВИЛА ГРУППА "What's News" VK.COM/WSNWS Contents The Economist July 20th 2019 The world this week 6 A summary of political and business news 9 10 10 11 On the cover A new age of space exploration is beginning. It will need the rule of law and a system of arms control to thrive: leader, page 9. Attacking satellites is increasingly attractive. It could also be very dangerous: briefing, page 16. Space is commercialising. The legal system needs to catch up, page 51. There is renewed interest in returning people to the Moon. This time it might actually happen, page 65 12 Leaders Space exploration The next 50 years Asylum rules While you were tweeting Business in America Soaring stockmarket, peaking profits Japan v South Korea History wars Democracy in Malaysia Time to bury the tools of oppression Letters 13 On Hong Kong, free trade, California, London, Monty Python Briefing 16 War in space Using the force • Asia’s homegrown trade war An escalating dispute between Japan and South Korea will test a strained global-trade system: leader, page 11. Relations between the two countries are fraying alarmingly: Banyan, page 46 • The electoral logic of racist tweets Donald Trump’s re-election campaign is likely to be even more racially divisive than his first: Lexington, page 35. Amid the outrage over the president’s race-baiting, his administration rewrote asylum law: leader, page 10 • Why profits have peaked After years of plenty America Inc is struggling to crank out more earnings, page 10. Is it time to worry? Page 53 19 20 21 21 22 22 23 24 Britain Housing and the economy Second homes by the sea Brecon’s by-election A reading revolution Scotland’s drug problem Britain’s Bill Gates on trial Sports broadcasting Bagehot The end of history 25 26 27 27 28 30 Europe Germany’s right-wingers A government in Spain? Women and science Rent controls in Europe France’s spreading forests Charlemagne Ursula von der Leyen 31 32 33 34 34 35 United States Paid family leave The Daddy trap Storytime with the Fed Access to contraception Politics and housemates Lexington Back to where he came from The Americas 36 Trump’s asylum order 37 Saving right whales 38 Bello The Venezuela talks Charlemagne Does Ursula von der Leyen have the right skills for the European Commission presidency? Page 30 39 40 41 41 42 Middle East & Africa WhatsApp in Africa Ebola spreads Hanging Chad How Arab states wreck holidays Saudi Arabia’s sexist laws • Cross-dressing in China Drag artists are tolerated if they look like Chinese opera stars, page 50 1 Contents continues overleaf 3 РЕЛИЗ ПОДГОТОВИЛА ГРУППА "What's News" VK.COM/WSNWS 4 Contents 43 44 46 47 47 48 The Economist July 20th 2019 Asia Japan’s broken politics Pakistan’s tribal areas Banyan Japan and South Korea Australia’s minimum wage Civil liberties in Malaysia Opulent Afghan weddings 59 61 61 62 62 63 64 China 49 Investment migrants 50 Politically correct cross-dressing Finance & economics The future of insurance China’s slowing economy Stimulus and the ECB Sterling’s slide Microloans for housing Buttonwood The factor fear Free exchange Paying for university Science & technology 65 Return to the Moon? 67 Brain-machine interfaces 67 Due credit to Alan Turing International 51 Outer space and the law 68 69 69 70 53 54 55 56 56 57 58 Business America Inc’s profits Bartleby Working with learning disabilities Facebook’s volte-face Homeopaths’ earnings Bayer’s remorse Brands and protest in Hong Kong Schumpeter Lessons from Mozilla Books & arts Melville at 200 Sex in America War and architecture Johnson Internet-speak Economic & financial indicators 72 Statistics on 42 economies Graphic detail 73 Youngsters are avoiding Facebook Obituary 74 Pierre Mambele, Kinshasa’s most sought-after driver Subscription service Volume 432 Number 9152 Published since September 1843 to take part in “a severe contest between intelligence, which presses forward, and an unworthy, timid ignorance obstructing our progress.” Editorial offices in London and also: Amsterdam, Beijing, Berlin, Brussels, Cairo, Chicago, Johannesburg, Madrid, Mexico City, Moscow, Mumbai, New Delhi, New York, Paris, San Francisco, São Paulo, Seoul, Shanghai, Singapore, Tokyo, Washington DC For our full range of subscription offers, including digital only or print and digital combined, visit: Economist.com/offers You can also subscribe by post, telephone or email: One-year print-only subscription (51 issues): Post: UK..........................................................................................£179 The Economist Subscription Services, PO Box 471, Haywards Heath, RH16 3GY, UK Please Telephone: 0333 230 9200 or 0207 576 8448 Email: customerservices @subscriptions.economist.com PEFC/16-33-582 PEFC certified This copy of The Economist is printed on paper sourced from sustainably managed forests certified by PEFC Registered as a newspaper. © 2019 The Economist Newspaper Limited. All rights reserved. Neither this publication nor any part of it may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without the prior permission of The Economist Newspaper Limited. Published every week, except for a year-end double issue, by The Economist Newspaper Limited. The Economist is a registered trademark of The Economist Newspaper Limited. Printed by Walstead Peterborough Limited. РЕЛИЗ ПОДГОТОВИЛА ГРУППА "What's News" VK.COM/WSNWS DON’T JUDGE ME ONLY ON WHAT I’M WORTH. JUDGE ME ON WHAT I’LL ACHIEVE. We consider a holistic view of your financial world to help you achieve your version of success. So, your income, financial assets, reputation, and track record are all taken into account. If you like this holistic approach to overcoming complexity, maybe we should talk. Search: Redefining Success Call: +44 (0) 207 597 3540 Minimum eligibility criteria and terms and conditions apply. Please visit our website for further details. Investec Private Banking is a part of Investec Bank plc (registered no. 489604). Registered address: 30 Gresham Street, London EC2V 7QP. Investec Bank plc is authorised by the Prudential Regulation Authority and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and the Prudential Regulation Authority. Investec Bank plc is a member of the London Stock Exchange. РЕЛИЗ ПОДГОТОВИЛА ГРУППА "What's News" VK.COM/WSNWS 6 The world this week Politics lashed out at him for spending large amounts of taxpayers’ money on lavish dinners, including fine wine and lobsters, which he says he does not like (“champagne gives me a headache”). He denies any wrongdoing. Ursula von der Leyen, until recently Germany’s defence minister, was approved by the European Parliament as the next president of the European Commission, the eu’s executive arm. She secured 383 votes, nine more than the required absolute majority, suggesting that she will take office with her authority already brittle. Her first, and very tricky, task is to assign jobs to the commissioners of each country. France’s environment minister, François de Rugy, resigned. The French press had There were 1,187 drug-related deaths in Scotland last year according to official figures. That is a rate of just over 218 people per million, higher than in the United States, which is in the grip of an opioid epidemic. Scotland’s drug problem has escalated quickly; over the past five years the number of drug-related deaths has more than doubled. Turkey took delivery of the first of its s-400 anti-aircraft missiles from Russia. The purchase has caused a huge row with nato. America has ended Turkey’s role in making f-35 fighter planes, for fear that its secrets will be stolen by Turkey’s Russian partners. The Economist July 20th 2019 Tit-for-tat A Turkish diplomat was killed in a gun attack in Erbil, the capital of Iraqi Kurdistan. Turkey recently stepped up its offensive in the Hakurk region of northern Iraq against Kurdish fighters, who have waged war with Turkish forces for decades. The soldiers running Sudan signed a power-sharing deal with the opposition, whose protests led to the fall of President Omar al-Bashir, a tyrant, in April. The accord lacks many details, but the two sides have agreed on a path to elections after three years, and the composition of a sovereign council of civilians and military types. The World Health Organisation formally declared the Ebola epidemic in the Democratic Republic of Congo to be a global health emergency. More than 1,670 people have died in the latest outbreak. Tentacles of a scandal Police arrested Alejandro Toledo, a former president of Peru, in California. Peru has requested his extradition to face charges that during his presidency from 2001 to 2006 he took $20m in bribes from Odebrecht, a Brazilian construction company. He denies wrongdoing. A judge in New York sentenced Joaquín Guzmán, also known as El Chapo (or Shorty), to life in prison plus 30 years. The former head of Mexico’s Sinaloa drug gang, who has twice escaped from Mexican prisons, was convicted in February on ten charges, including trafficking cocaine and heroin and conspiracy to murder. Donald Trump ordered that asylum-seekers who have passed through another country en route to America (ie, most of them) must prove that they have applied for asylum in 1 РЕЛИЗ ПОДГОТОВИЛА ГРУППА "What's News" VK.COM/WSNWS The Economist July 20th 2019 2 that country first—and been rejected—before they can claim sanctuary in the United States. Civil-rights groups sued to overturn the order. A heck of a layover Tsai Ing-wen, Taiwan’s president, upset China by dawdling in America while on her way to and from the Caribbean. She was scheduled to spend four days on American soil—somewhat longer than is necessary to change planes. Her meetings with American politicians infuriated the People’s Republic, which insists that no one should treat Taiwan like a country. America also announced a $2bn arms sale to Taiwan. Meanwhile, the Kuomintang, Taiwan’s main opposition party, chose as its candidate for presidential elections next year Han Kuo-yu, a mayor, rather than Terry Gou, the founder of Foxconn, the world’s biggest contract manufacturer of mobile phones. The world this week 7 America barred four Burmese generals from entering the country, saying that they were involved in Myanmar’s “gross violations of human rights”. The Burmese army helped lead a pogrom that sent 700,000 members of the Rohingya minority fleeing into neighbouring Bangladesh in 2017. Ambassadors from 37 countries signed a letter praising China’s “contribution to the international human-rights cause”, including in its restive western region of Xinjiang, where China has locked up perhaps 1m people, mostly Muslim Uighurs, in “vocational training” camps. The signatories were all from authoritarian regimes with dodgy human-rights records. An earlier letter condemning the camps was signed by 22 democracies. Unrest continued in Hong Kong over a law that would allow criminal suspects to be sent for trial in mainland China. The bill has been shelved, but protesters want it formally withdrawn. votes, losing heavily. It was the first time such a motion against Mr Trump had come to a vote. A Republican senator called the women “a bunch of communists”. A hit on “The Squad” Donald Trump told four non-white Democratic congresswomen, two of them Muslim, to “go back” to where they came from and fix their “own” corrupt governments before criticising America. Three of the women were born in the United States; the other is an American citizen. A resolution to impeach Mr Trump over his words attracted 95 Thousands of protesters demanded the resignation of Puerto Rico’s governor, Ricardo Rosselló. Some threw bottles and fireworks at police, who responded with tear gas and rubber bullets. Mr Rosselló is in trouble after 900 pages of chat-group messages were leaked, in which he apparently referred to a female politician as a “whore” and suggested that the us federal board that oversees Puerto Rico’s awful finances should commit a sex act with itself. Alex Acosta resigned as America’s labour secretary. As a prosecutor in 2008, Mr Acosta had struck a plea deal with Jeffrey Epstein, a financier accused of having sex with under-age girls. РЕЛИЗ ПОДГОТОВИЛА ГРУППА "What's News" VK.COM/WSNWS 8 The world this week Business The Economist July 20th 2019 In a presentation to scientists, Elon Musk said that a startup he backs which is developing technology to integrate artificial intelligence with the brain plans to begin tests on humans by the end of next year. Neuralink is working on a system that will connect the human brain to machines by implanting hundreds of electrode “threads”, thinner than strands of hair, into the brain, using a surgical robot. The procedure is intended for patients with severe neurological disorders, but could eventually be used to boost the brain’s power. own advantage when selling its own products. News emerged that Facebook is to be fined $5bn in America for violating users’ privacy in the Cambridge Analytica scandal. Although this would be by far the biggest penalty levied on a technology company in the United States, one bipartisan group of senators described it as “egregiously inadequate”, and that $5bn was too small to “alter the incentives and behaviour of Facebook and its peers”. The Federal Trade Commission is awaiting approval for the settlement from the Justice Department. Brexit nightmare Meanwhile, there was more push back from officials against Facebook’s plan to launch a global cryptocurrency, to be named Libra. Steven Mnuchin, America’s treasury secretary, said that given concerns about the potential for money-laundering, Libra was a national security issue and that Facebook has “a lot of work to do” convincing government. The negative political rumblings on Libra were one factor behind a dramatic fall in digital-currency prices, a volatile market at the best of times. Bitcoin plunged by a third over the course of the week. The eu’s competition regulator trained its sights on Amazon. The retailer is to be investigated over the process for sharing the “Buy Box” on its website with independent vendors, and whether it uses data provided by the vendors to its Netflix’s share price tumbled after it disclosed that it had lost subscribers in America for the first time in eight years and had signed up just 2.7m new users globally in the second quarter, far below its forecast of 5m. Netflix raised the subscription price for its American customers earlier this year, just as it is about to face strong competition from other media companies starting their own online streaming services. The pound against the dollar $ per £ Brexit vote 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.2 2016 17 18 19 Source: Datastream from Refinitiv Sterling fell sharply against the dollar and other currencies. Markets are waking up to the likely victory of Boris Johnson in the race to become Britain’s new prime minister. Mr Johnson maintains a hardline position that he is prepared to leave the eu without a deal on October 31st; Britain’s fiscal watchdog thinks a nodeal Brexit would plunge the country into recession. Four months into its search for a new ceo following the abrupt departure of Timothy Sloan, Wells Fargo reported a higherthan-expected quarterly net profit of $6.2bn. The bank is struggling to find a new boss as it continues to deal with the regulatory fallout from a fakeaccounts scandal. Other American banks also released second-quarter earnings. Profit came in at $9.7bn for JPMorgan Chase, $7.3bn for Bank of America and $2.4bn for Goldman Sachs, all above forecasts. China’s gdp grew by 6.2% in the second quarter, year on year, the slowest pace in three decades. As the trade war with America hits exports, China’s economy is now fuelled by domestic demand. South Korea’s central bank sliced a quarter of a percentage point off its main interest rate, to 1.5%. It was the first cut in three years and comes amid a slump in the country’s exports. The new governor of Turkey’s central bank suggested that there was now “room to manoeuvre” on cutting interest rates, given a fall in inflation to 15.7%. Murat Uysal was appointed to the job when his predecessor was ousted in a row over monetary policy with the government. Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the country’s president, said recently that he expects a “serious” reduction in the 24% benchmark rate. Anheuser-Busch InBev scrapped a sale of shares in its Asian business, blaming market conditions. The brewer had hoped to raise $9.8bn on the Hong Kong stock exchange, which would have made it the world’s biggest ipo this year, ahead of Uber. Strange brew AG Barr, the maker of irn-bru, a soft drink that holds a special place in the Scottish psyche, issued a profit warning, blaming a “disappointing” summer in Scotland for a drop in sales. The company, which counts Tizer and Big Willie ginger beer among its brands, has also had to reduce the amount of sugar in its drinks to comply with a sugar tax. irn-bru’s distinct fluorescent orange colour (and its unique taste, a product of 32 flavouring agents) evokes such passion that a butcher in Fife once produced irn-bru infused sausages. РЕЛИЗ ПОДГОТОВИЛА ГРУППА "What's News" VK.COM/WSNWS Leaders Leaders 9 The next 50 years in space A new age of space exploration is beginning. It will need the rule of law and a system of arms control to thrive T he moment when, 50 years ago, Neil Armstrong planted his foot on the surface of the Moon inspired awe, pride and wonder around the world. This newspaper argued that “man, from this day on, can go wheresoever in the universe his mind wills and his ingenuity contrives…to the planets, sooner rather than later, man is now certain to go.” But no. The Moon landing was an aberration, a goal achieved not as an end in itself but as a means of signalling America’s extraordinary capabilities. That point, once made, required no remaking. Only 571 people have been into orbit; and since 1972 no one has ventured much farther into space than Des Moines is from Chicago. The next 50 years will look very different (see Science section). Falling costs, new technologies, Chinese and Indian ambitions, and a new generation of entrepreneurs promise a bold era of space development. It will almost certainly involve tourism for the rich and better communications networks for all; in the long run it might involve mineral exploitation and even mass transportation. Space will become ever more like an extension of Earth—an arena for firms and private individuals, not just governments. But for this promise to be fulfilled the world needs to create a system of laws to govern the heavens—both in peacetime and, should it come to that, in war. The development of space thus far has been focused on facilitating activity down below—mainly satellite communications for broadcasting and navigation. Now two things are changing. First, geopolitics is stoking a new push to send humans beyond the shallows of low-Earth orbit. China plans to land people on the Moon by 2035. President Donald Trump’s administration wants Americans to be back there by 2024. Falling costs make this showing off more affordable than before. Apollo cost hundreds of billions of dollars (in today’s money). Now tens of billions are the ticket price. Second, the private sector has come of age. Between 1958 and 2009 almost all of the spending in space was by state agencies, mainly nasa and the Pentagon. In the past decade private investment has risen to an annual average of $2bn a year, or 15% of the total, and it is set to increase further. SpaceX, Elon Musk’s rocket firm, made 21successful satellite launches last year and is valued at $33bn. Jeff Bezos, the founder of Amazon, sells off $1bn-worth...
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