10 SDM.pdf - CONS 481 | UBC Fall 2017 Lorien Nesbitt...

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Conservation Planning and Wildland Recreation CONS 481 | UBC Fall 2017 Lorien Nesbitt
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Structured Decision Making
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LEARNING OBJECTIVES Understand the origins of SDM Describe SDM and its steps List tools commonly used in SDM Understand how to apply SDM in conservation planning
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Conservation planning as applied decision making Conservation planning efforts are complex: Multiple objectives Multiple actions Multiple metrics Multiple participants 1 Implementation is constrained (location, $, time, resources, knowledge) 2 Context: ecosystem and social considerations 3
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Uncertainty and reality It is hard to make predictions or account for all factors Strategies should be adaptive and responsive to uncertainty BUT Institutions/people may not be sufficiently flexible 4
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Problems with conventional conservation planning Assumes Information is relevant People can understand it Good information = good decisions Conventional thinking: “If people have good information, they will make good choices” Information only relevant if understandable and connects values of participants Too much information, probability neglect, judgment biases Difficult to make good decisions Search for consensus can lead to acceptance of “lowest common denominator” ignores key issues 5
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Structured Decision Making 6
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SDM A step-by-step approach to generating and evaluating policy strategies marked by Multiple interests Multiple participants Conflicting information Uncertainty Flexible approach to help decision makers address tough choices 7
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Origins of SDM Axiomatic structure for how decisions should be made •“The formal use of common sense for decision problems that are too complex for informal use of common sense” (Ralph Keeney, 1982) Based on principles of Decision Analysis and Multi-attribute Untility Theory (MAUT)
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