7 ScenarioPlanning_MM.pdf - CONS 481 | UBC Conservation...

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Conservation Planning and Wildland Recreation CONS 481 | UBC
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Scenario planning
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LEARNING OBJECTIVES Understand what is scenario planning List different types and techniques used for scenario planning Explain at least one application
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Definition Scenario planning is a strategic planning method used to make flexible long-term plans operating in conditions of high uncertainty . As the name implies SCENARIOS are generated and then evaluated Can help us to explore possible, probable and/or preferable futures
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Types of scenarios Predictive What will happen? Explorative What can happen? Normative How can a certain target be reached?
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Millennium Ecosystem Assessment 2005
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Millennium Ecosystem Assessment 2005
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Scenario exercise 1. Identify the key focal issue or concern, time horizon 2-25 y 2. Identify the primary driving forces, select two most uncertain and important ones 3. Develop a small number of diverging future scenarios 4. Develop the scenario detail 5.
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  • Fall '16
  • Michael J. Meitner
  • scenario planning

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