Deflation_Slides

Deflation_Slides - Figure 1. The Post Civil War Deflation,...

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1869 1871 1873 1875 1877 1879 -35 -30 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 Log of Price Level Figure 1. The Post Civil War Deflation, 1869-1879 Romer Balke-Gordon 1869 1871 1873 1875 1877 1879 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Log of Real GDP Romer Balke-Gordon 1861 1863 1865 1867 1869 1871 1873 1875 1877 1879 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 Price of Gold in Greenbacks, 1861-1879 1871 1872 1873 1874 1875 1876 1877 1878 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 Commodity Price Forecast Errors (1871-1878)
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1919 1920 1921 1922 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 Log of Alternative Price Indexes Figure 3. Inflation and Deflation after WWI, 1919-1922 GNP Deflator BLS Commodity Price Index 1919 1920 1921 1922 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 Real GNP and Industrial Production Real GNP (Balke-Gordon) Industrial Production (FRB) 1919 1920 1921 1922 4 4.5 5 5.5 6 6.5 7 7.5 8 8.5 Interest rates Discount Rate (System avg) Commercial Paper rate 1919.5 1920 1920.5 1921 1921.5 1922 1922 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 Commodity Price Forecast Errors Corn Oats Cotton
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80 85 90 95 100 The Great Depression Pr ice Level 60 65 70 75 1929 1930 1931 1932 1933 1934 1935 1936 R e a l O u t p u t
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Deflation_Slides - Figure 1. The Post Civil War Deflation,...

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