Africa_2020

Africa_2020 - Africa in 2020 National Intelligence Council...

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Africa in 2020 National Intelligence Council 2020 Project Summary of Discussion by Select Panel of US Experts January 9, 2004 The National Intelligence Council routinely sponsors unclassified conferences with outside experts to sharpen the level of debate on critical issues. The views expressed in this conference report [or paper] are those of individual participants. They are presented not as final reports of the NIC 2020 project but to stimulate discussion and debate. The papers are labeled discussion paper--does not represent the views of the US Government ---and should not be cited in any other manner.
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Discussion paper--does not represent the views of the US Government Discussion paper--does not represent the views of the US Government Africa in 2020 National Intelligence Council 2020 Project Summary of Discussion by Select Panel of US Experts January 9, 2004 Introduction The 2020 scenario exercise is designed to extend the comprehensive 2015 exercise completed by the National Intelligence Council in December 2000. 1 This paper first reviews the 2015 document and then discusses several important issues central to attempting to describe Africa in 2020. The paper is based on a day-long discussion held on January 9, 2004. 2 Learning from 2015 The 2015 exercise was notable for its focus on seven global drivers (including demographics, natural resources and environment, and science and technology) and, primarily because of the nature of the publication, a relatively limited review of Africa. Generally, for a more Africa-focused analysis of 2020: More attention should be devoted to how the drivers identified as globally important affect specific processes in Africa. For instance, democracy, perhaps taken for granted as a general condition in most of the world, will be an important driver of change in Africa over the next twenty years. It should be understood that the drivers themselves may interact in complex manners, especially a decade or more from now. For instance, there almost certainly will be a vaccine for malaria and HIV/AIDS by 2020, although new diseases will also undoubtedly appear. 1 See, National Intelligence Council, Global Trends 2015: A Conversation with Nongovernmental Experts (National Intelligence Council, 2000). Found at: http://www.cia.gov/nic/NIC_globaltrend2015.html 2 The final version of this paper also includes written comments on an earlier draft from several of the January conference participants.
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Discussion paper--does not represent the views of the US Government Discussion paper--does not represent the views of the US Government 2 Greater appreciation should be demonstrated for the potential of states and other actors to affect the political processes across the continent over the next twenty years. States may exacerbate the effect of the drivers or they may moderate them. For instance, the “technology” of conflict resolution had improved in the last few years and has been on display in the recent burst of peace negotiations across the continent. Critically, a better understanding of how Africa will become more
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Africa_2020 - Africa in 2020 National Intelligence Council...

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