4620 AQ Uncertainty

4620 AQ Uncertainty - In ten years, the modeling of CO...

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Sources of Uncertainty There are quite a few variables that were unable to be included in this model that may cause some margin of error in the projections of this analysis. Future weather patterns are always an uncertainty in projecting 10 years ahead. In light of this, the projection of daily temperatures in a decade may be relatively inaccurate. Technology in vehicles a decade in the future is hard to predict as well. With the production of Alternative fuels/energy, the fleet in ten years may be very different than the one present today. A change in emissions may be a direct result of this fleet change as well.
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Unformatted text preview: In ten years, the modeling of CO emissions may be obsolete, or we can hope anyway. Inaccurate predictions of future fleet size can also be a variable providing inaccuracy of the output emissions. Different levels congestion can cause different emission profiles, and with the increase of congestion you directly lower the vehicle speed on the modeled area which in turn can affect the model output. As can be seen, there are a number of uncertainties involved with these analyses, and caution should be exercised when dealing with extremes of emission projections....
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