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Unformatted text preview: 2018 THE STATE OF FOOD SECURITY AND NUTRITION IN THE WORLD BUILDING CLIMATE RESILIENCE FOR FOOD SECURITY AND NUTRITION This flagship publication is part of THE STATE OF THE WORLD series of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. Recommended citation: FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP and WHO. 2018. The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2018. Building climate resilience for food security and nutrition. Rome, FAO. Licence: CC BY-NC-SA 3.0 IGO. 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A girl working in a rice field in Viet Nam, where rice production and food security are threatened by rising sea levels and temperature increases linked to climate extremes. 2018 THE STATE OF FOOD SECURITY AND NUTRITION IN THE WORLD BUILDING CLIMATE RESILIENCE FOR FOOD SECURITY AND NUTRITION Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations Rome, 2018 CONTENTS FOREWORD METHODOLOGY ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS KEY MESSAGES EXECUTIVE SUMMARY viii xi xii xiii Statistical tables and methodological notes to Part 1 116 Methodological notes 140 ANNEX 2 1 1.1 Recent trends in hunger and food insecurity 2 1.2 Progress towards improving nutrition 13 1.3 Links between food insecurity and malnutrition 26 Country group definitions and lists in Part 2 148 ANNEX 3 Methodology Part 2 154 ANNEX 4 Glossary 156 NOTES 162 37 2.1 Why focus on the impact of climate variability and extremes on food security and nutrition? 38 2.2 How do changing climate variability and extremes affect the immediate and underlying causes of food insecurity and malnutrition? 60 2.3 What are the impacts of climate on the vulnerability, resource and control factors that shape food security and nutrition? 79 2.4 Working towards coherence of policies, programmes and practices to address climate variability and extremes 93 2.5 Overall conclusion 115 ANNEX 1 ix PART 1 FOOD SECURITY AND NUTRITION AROUND THE WORLD IN 2018 PART 2 THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE ON FOOD SECURITY AND NUTRITION ANNEXES v 112 | ii | TABLES, FIGURES AND BOXES TABLES 1  Prevalence of undernourishment in the world, 2005–2017 4 2  Number of undernourished people in the world, 2005–2017 6 FIGURES 3  Prevalence of severe food insecurity, measured with the Food Insecurity Experience Scale, 2014–2017 9 4  Number of people experiencing severe food insecurity, measured with the Food Insecurity Experience Scale, 2014–2017 10 5  Stages of the nutrition transition 27 6  Summary of findings of studies included in a literature review of the links between experienced food insecurity and selected forms of malnutrition 31 7  Climate shocks were one of the leading causes of food crisis situations in 2017 59 A1.1  Progress towards the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs): Prevalence of undernourishment, severe food insecurity, selected forms of malnutrition and exclusive breastfeeding 116 A1.2  Progress towards the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs): Number of people who are affected by undernourishment, severe food insecurity and selected forms of malnutrition; number of infants exclusively breastfed 128 A2.1  List of countries by food security vulnerability factors A3.1  Countries with PoU change point corresponding to ASAP severe drought conditions 155 151 A2.2  Countries with high exposure to climate extremes during 2011–2016, by inter-seasonal variability, frequency and intensity of extremes and vulnerability to climate and conflict 152 1  The number of undernourished people in the world has been on the rise since 2014, reaching an estimated 821 million in 2017 3 2  Severe food insecurity is higher in 2017 than it was in 2014 in every region except Northern America and Europe, with notable increases in Africa and Latin America 8 3  Women are more likely than men to be affected by severe food insecurity in Africa, Asia and Latin America 10 4  The prevalence of undernourishment and the prevalence of severe food insecurity show a consistent picture for most countries, but differences exist 11 5  Nutrition: essential to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals 14 6  There is still a long road ahead to achieve the 2025 and 2030 targets for stunting, wasting, overweight, exclusive breastfeeding, anaemia in women of reproductive age and adult obesity 16 7  Despite some progress to reduce the prevalence of stunted children under five, millions are still affected by stunting, wasting and overweight 17 8  Rates of child wasting remain extremely high in some subregions in 2017, especially in Asia 20 11  Disparities in the prevalence of child wasting are observed between the poorest and the richest households, especially in Eastern Africa 23 12  Large differences exist in prevalence of child wasting within regions and countries 24 13  Countries affected by multiple forms of malnutrition 28 14  Pathways from inadequate food access to multiple forms of malnutrition 30 15  Increasing number of extreme climate-related disasters, 1990–2016 39 16  Recent past temperature anomalies compared to the 1981–2016 average 43 17  Number of years with frequent hot days over agriculture cropping areas (2011–2016 compared to 1981–2016) 44 18  Recent past precipitation anomalies compared to the 1981–2016 average 46 19  Decreased growing season length and year of lowest cumulative annual vegetation biomass over cropland and rangeland areas in Africa, 2004–2016 47 20  Precipitation anomalies associated with drought in agriculture cropping areas (2011–2016 compared to 1981–2016) 48 9  Millions of children are at increased risk of mortality due to wasting in 2017, mainly in Asia and Africa 21 21  Frequency of agricultural drought conditions during the El Niño of 2015–2017 compared to the 2004–2017 average 50 10  Inequalities in income, education, gender and place of residence reflect on child wasting rates 22 22  Frequency of flood- and storm-related disasters by region, 1990–2016 | iii | 51 TABLES, FIGURES AND BOXES 23  PoU change points associated with the occurrence of severe agricultural drought 53 34  Food price spikes follow climate extremes for top global cereal producers, 1990–2016 71 24  Increased exposure to more frequent and multiple types of climate extremes in low- and middle-income countries 54 35   Health consequences of extreme climate-related events 25  Higher prevalence and number of undernourished people in countries with high exposure to climate extremes 55 26  Undernourishment is higher when exposure to climate extremes is compounded by high levels of vulnerability in agriculture 56 27  Undernourishment is higher for countries with both high exposure to climate extremes and high vulnerability 58 28  Links between food security and nutrition, and the underlying causes of food insecurity and malnutrition 61 29  Effect of climate variability and drought on national cereal production of low- and middle-income countries, 2001–2017 64 30  Crop and livestock sub-sectors incur the highest damages and losses in agriculture due to climate-related disasters, of which drought is the most destructive, 2006–2016 66 31  Climate variability and extremes are correlated with cereal imports in many low- and middle-income countries 68 32  Increases in imports and decreases in exports of agricultural commodities after climate-related disasters by region, 2003–2011 69 33  Crop and livestock losses caused by climate-related disasters by region, 2004–2015 70 75 36  Labour capacity loss due to extreme heat exposure (change in 2006–2016 relative to 1986–2008) 77 37  Mosquito-borne disease incidence and sensitivity to climate variability and extremes 78 38   Health and education facilities damaged by disaster type, 1994–2013 81 39  The global scale of displacement caused by disasters, 2008–2014 89 40  Global policy platforms and processes where climate resilience is a key element for the achievement of sustainable development 95 BOXES 1  Revised series of estimates of the prevalence of undernourishment and projections for 2017 5 2  How are hunger and food insecurity measured? 7 3  A combined look at the prevalence of undernourishment and of severe food insecurity 11 4  Different food security assessments for different objectives 12 5  Extending the World Health Assembly nutrition targets to 2030 15 6  Leveraging the United Nations Decade of Action on Nutrition 2016–2025 18 7  Thinness among school-age children 25 | iv | 8  The relationship between climate variability and ENSO 41 9  Food security vulnerability factors analysed 57 10  Small Island Developing States: Destruction of natural, physical and human capital and long-term implications for non-communicable disease and malnutrition 83 11  Severe droughts can contribute to increased social instability and trigger conflicts 84 12  Commonly used ex post coping strategies that are detrimental to food security and nutrition: selected country examples 86 13  The gender dimensions of vulnerability to climate shocks 92 14  Enhancing the contribution of neglected and underutilized species (NUS) to food security and income 99 15  Climate-smart agricultural practices and food systems: the case of small family farm crop diversification in Malawi 101 16  Participatory plant breeding to increase crop yields and resilience in Iran (Islamic Republic of) 102 17  Investing in vulnerability reduction measures, including climate-proof infrastructure and nature-based solutions 106 18  Households affected by climate shocks who are able to restock or access veterinary services have higher food consumption in Kyrgyzstan 108 19  Climate resilience in Pacific Small Island Developing States (SIDS) 111 FOREWORD evidence in this year’s report corroborates the rise in world hunger, thus demanding an even greater call to action. Furthermore, while we must sow the seeds of peace in order to achieve food securit y, improve nutrition and “leave no one behind”, we also need to redouble efforts to build climate resilience for food securit y and nutrition. In September 2017, we jointly launched The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World, marking the beginning of a new era in monitoring progress towards achieving a world without hunger and malnutrition, within the framework of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). This report monitors progress towards the targets of ending both hunger (SDG Target 2.1) and all forms of malnutrition (SDG Target 2.2), and provides an analysis of the underlying causes and drivers of obser ved trends. While the prevalence of undernourishment is at the forefront of monitoring hunger, the prevalence of severe food insecurity – based on the Food Insecurit y Experience Scale (FIES) – was introduced last year to provide an estimate of the proportion of the population facing serious constraints on their abilit y to obtain safe, nutritious and sufficient food. In 2017, the number of undernourished people is estimated to have reached 821 million – around one person out of ever y nine in the world. Undernourishment and severe food insecurit y appear to be increasing in almost all subregions of Africa, as well as in South America, whereas the undernourishment situation is stable in most regions of Asia. A more encouraging finding last year was that the rising trend in undernourishment had not yet been ref lected in rates of child stunting; this continues to be the case this year. Nonetheless, we are concerned that in 2017, nearly 151 million children under five have stunted growth, while the lives of over 50 million children in the world continue to be threatened by wasting. Such children are at a higher risk of mortalit y and poor health, growth and development. A multisectoral approach is needed to reduce the burden of stunting and wasting, and to appropriately treat wasting to reduce childhood morbidit y and mortalit y. The report also tracks prog ress on a set of indicators used to monitor World Health Assembly global targets for nutrition and diet-related non-communicable diseases, three of which are also indicators of SDG2 targets. The challenges we face are indeed significant. Of great concern is the finding last year that, after a prolonged decline, the most recent estimates showed global hunger had increased in 2016. Last year we obser ved that the failure to reduce world hunger is closely associated with the increase in conf lict and violence in several parts of the world, and that efforts to fight hunger must go hand in hand with those to sustain peace. New In addition to contributing to undernutrition, the food insecurit y we are witnessing today also | v | FOREWORD FOREWORD people’s livelihoods in response to climate variabilit y and extremes. contributes to overweight and obesit y, which partly explains the coexistence of these forms of malnutrition in many countries. In 2017, childhood overweight affected over 38 million children under five years of age, with Africa and Asia representing 25 percent and 46 percent of the global total, respectively. Anaemia in women and obesit y in adults are also on the increase at the global level – one in three women of reproductive age is anaemic and more than one in eight adults – or more than 672 million – is obese. The problem of obesit y is most significant in North America, but it is worr ying that even Africa and Asia, which still show the lowest rates of obesit y, are also experiencing an upward trend. Furthermore, overweight and obesit y are increasing the risk of non-communicable diseases such as t ype 2 diabetes, high blood pressure, heart attacks and some forms of cancer. Building climate resilience will require climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction and management to be integrated into short-, medium- and long-term policies, programmes and practices. National and local governments can find g uidance in the outcomes and recommendations of existing global policy platforms: climate change (governed by the UNFCCC and the 2015 Paris Agreement); disaster risk reduction (the Sendai Framework on Disaster Risk Reduction); humanitarian emergency response (the 2016 World Humanitarian Summit and the Grand Bargain); improved nutrition and healthy diets (the Second International Conference on Nutrition [ICN2] and the UN Decade of Action on Nutrition 2016 –2025); and development as part of the overarching 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. Currently many of these global policy platforms are still too compartmentalized and not well aligned. Therefore, we must do more to work towards a better integration of these platforms to ensure that actions across and within sectors such as environment, food, agriculture and health, pursue coherent objectives to address the negative impacts and threats that changing climate variabilit y and increased climate extremes pose to people’s food securit y, access to healthy diets, safe nutrition and health. In addition to conf lict and v iolence in many parts of the world, the gains made in ending hunger and malnutrition are being eroded by climate variabilit y and exposure to more complex, frequent and intense climate extremes, as shown in Part 2 of this report. Hunger is sig nificantly worse in countries w ith ag ricultural systems that are highly sensitive to rainfall and temperature variabilit y and severe drought, and where the livelihood of a high proportion of the population depends on ag riculture. If we are to achieve a world w ithout hunger and malnutrition in all its forms by 2030, it is imperative that we accelerate and scale up actions to streng then the resilience and adaptive capacit y of food systems and The transformative vision of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development and the new challenges we face in ending hunger and malnutrition call | vi | The alarming signs of increasing food insecurit y and high levels of different forms of malnutrition are a clear warning that there is considerable work to be done to make sure we “leave no one behind” on the road towards achieving the SDG goals on food securit y and improved nutrition. on us to renew and strengthen our five organizations’ strategic partnerships. We reiterate our determination and commitment to step up concerted action to fulfil the ambitions of the 2030 Agenda and achieve a world free from hunger and all forms of malnutrition. José Graziano da Silva Gilbert F. Houngbo Henrietta H. Fore FAO Director-General IFAD President UNICEF Executive Director David Beasley Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus WFP Executive Director WHO Director-General | vii | METHODOLOGY The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2018 has been prepar...
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