1489_sejda-DYJ.pdf - Chapter 5 Greenhouse Gas Emissions and...

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Chapter 5 Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Climate Change 5-21 Emissions under each action alternative were compared against those under the No Action Alternative. GHG emissions were estimated using the methods described in Section 2.3, Standard-Setting and EIS Methods and Assumptions . For the climate analysis, GHG emissions trajectories are projected through the year 2100. NHTSA estimated GHG emissions for the passenger car and light truck fleets for 2061 to 2100 by applying the projected rate of change in U.S. transportation fuel consumption over this period from GCAM. 17 For 2061 through 2100, the GCAM Reference and GCAM 6.0 scenarios project that U.S. road transportation fuel consumption will decline slightly because of assumed improvements in efficiency of internal combustion engine‐powered vehicles and increased deployment of noninternal combustion engine vehicles with higher drivetrain efficiencies. However, the projection of road transport fuel consumption beyond 2050 does not change substantially. Therefore, emissions remain relatively constant from 2050 through 2100. The assumptions and methods used to develop the GHG emissions estimates for this EIS are broadly consistent with those used in the MY 2011 2015 CAFE Final EIS, the MY 2012 2016 CAFE Final EIS (NHTSA 2010), Phase 1 Fuel Efficiency Standards for Medium- and Heavy-Duty Engines and Vehicles Final EIS (NHTSA 2011), MY 2017 2025 CAFE Final EIS (NHTSA 2012), and the Phase 2 Fuel Efficiency Standards for Medium- and Heavy-Duty Engines and Vehicles Final EIS (NHTSA 2016c). The emissions estimates include global CO 2 , CH 4 , and N 2 O emissions resulting from direct fuel combustion and the production and distribution of fuel and electricity (upstream emissions). The MOVES model also estimated the following non‐GHG em issions, which are used as inputs in MAGICC6: sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ), NO X , carbon monoxide (CO), and volatile organic compounds (VOCs). Higher fuel consumption from less stringent passenger car and light truck CAFE standards would result in higher emissions of CO 2 (the main GHG emitted) because of refining, distribution, and use of transportation fuels. 18 There is a direct relationship among fuel efficiency, fuel consumption, and CO 2 emissions. Fuel efficiency describes how much fuel a vehicle requires to perform a certain amount of work (for example, how many miles it can travel or how many tons it can carry per mile traveled). A vehicle is more fuel‐efficient if it can perform more work while consuming less fuel . Higher fuel consumption increases CO 2 emissions directly because the primary source of vehicle‐related CO 2
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  • Fall '19
  • Internal combustion engine, Greenhouse gas

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