OM 302 HW 4.docx - Homework 4 1 Three-year moving averages...

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Homework 4 1. Three-year moving averages for years 4 through 10. Year Demand Moving Average 1 74 N/A 2 90 N/A 3 59 N/A 4 91 74.33 5 140 80.00 6 98 96.67 7 110 109.67 8 123 116.00 9 99 110.33 10 110.67 2. MAD for Three-Period Moving Average Week Sales (Cases) Forecast Forecast Error Absolute Error 1 17 2 21 3 27 4 31 22 9 9 5 19 26 -7 7 6 17 26 -9 9 7 21 22 -1 1 8 MAD 6.5 MAD for Four-Period Moving Average Week Sales (Cases) Forecast Forecast Error Absolute Error 1 17 2 21 3 27 4 31 5 19 24 -5 5 6 17 25 -8 8 7 21 24 -3 3 8 22 MAD 5.33 The MAD for a four-period moving average is 5.33 and the MAD for a three-period moving average is 6.5, therefore the four-period moving average is more accurate. By using the four-period moving average, the forecast for period 8 is 22. 3. Trend projection to estimate the relationship between time and sales. Month Sales (y) x x * y x * x January 51 1 51 1 February 55 2 110 4 March 54 3 162 9 April 57 4 228 16
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May 50 5 250 25 June 68 6 408 36 July 66 7 462 49 August 59 8 472 64 September 67 9 603 81 October 69 10 690 100 November 75 11 825 121 December 73 12 876 144 Total 744 78 5137 650 Average 62 6.5 a. Use a trend projection to estimate the relationship between time and sales (state the equation). Slope B = (5137–(12*62*6.5))/(650-(12*6.5*6.5)) = 2.105 b. Calculate forecasts for the first four months of the next year.
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  • Fall '19
  • Forecasting, Harshad number, Self number, Prime number

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