GOVT311 Lecture 1 Polling - GOVT 311 Lecture 1 Survey...

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GOVT 311 Lecture 1: Survey Methodology
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Public: A group that has something in common Types of publics: Everyone People connected to their government Citizens Citizens of voting age People registered to vote People likely to vote Attentive publics Issue publics
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The Birth of Polling: The Straw Poll The “straw poll”: first conducted by the Harrisburg Pennsylvanian in 1824. Mail out ballots and tally returned votes. Also used as a marketing ploy
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Reliability of Straw Polls Depend on people to return mail-in cards. Pierre du Pont straw poll concerning Prohibition was only returned by people who favored repealing it. People polled can be unrepresentative (haphazard sample) 1936 Literary Digest poll predicted Alf Landon (57%) would be elected president over FDR (43%).
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The Birth of the Modern Poll Gallup in 1936 predicts FDR wins (55.7% even though FDR won 60.8%). Used scientific “quota sampling” of only about 1,200 people compared to the 2 million in the Literary Digest straw poll.
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Sampling The Population The Sample Unknown
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Simple Random Sampling Error The Sample will “likely” look like the Population But, by random chance it is unlikely that the Sample will be exactly like the Population
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Simple Random Sampling Error Where, is the observed percentage N is the number of people in the sample ( 29 N p p ˆ 1 ˆ Error Standard - = p ˆ
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Simple Random Sampling Error p ˆ 1 S.E.
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