3201\u7b2c\u4e8c\u90e8\u5206 w5-w7.docx - Week 5 Understanding risk \u2022 \u2022 Limitations of the technical definition of risk We defined risk as the likelihood of a

3201u7b2cu4e8cu90e8u5206 w5-w7.docx - Week 5...

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Week 5 Understanding risk Limitations of the technical definition of risk We defined risk as the likelihood of a hazard causing harm/loss. (……or later in the course as the effect of uncertainty in the objectives) 我们将风险定义为造成损害 / 损失的危险的可能性。 (…… 或在课程后期由于目标不 确定性的影响 ) Risk perception concept Subjective judgment that an individual makes about the frequency and severity of a risk. 个人对风险的频率和严重性所作的主观 判断。 Considers the estimate of the likelihood and the severity of the undesirable consequences of the risk Intuitive judgments: based on feelings and opinions in a context of limited and uncertain information. 考虑对风险不良后果的可能性和严重性的估计 直觉判断 : 基于有限和不确定的信息背景下的感觉和意见。 Understanding risk and risk perception is a fundamental step to understanding the risk management process. 理解风险和风险感知是理解 风险管理过程的基本步骤。 Limitations of judging and deciding on risk: Physical: Only perceived stimuli can be processed Psychological: certain factors affect our perceptions 判断和决定风险的局限性 : 物理的 : 只有感知到的刺激才能被处理 心理上的 : 某些因素会影响我们的认知 Risk assessment - experts vs lay people Risk judgements: Heuristics: availability, representativeness and anchoring 启发式 : 可用性、代表性和锚定 The study of risk perception:

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